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Over the last decade, late-stage and crossover funds have faced sharper elbows from a wider number of non-traditional market participants that write checks to maturing but still-private companies. A lot of these firms have done well as their portfolio companies begin to to trade publicly or get acquired. Still, it’s harder every year to stand […]
Over the last decade, late-stage and crossover funds have faced sharper elbows from a wider number of non-traditional market participants that write checks to maturing but still-private companies. A lot of these firms have done well as their portfolio companies begin to to trade publicly or get acquired. Still, it’s harder every year to stand […]
Markets Have Seen This Movie Before (Spoiler Alert: The Ending Is Horrible) Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning, As I expected, the Fed didnt raise rates this week at its January FOMC meeting. If you were thinking the Fed would have to begin raising rates to counteract inflation, youre probably going to have to wait until March, when the Feds Open Market Committee meets again. The Fed says it will soon be appropriate to raise rates. It also says it will end asset purchases in March, so all signs point to a March rate hike. How did the stock market react to this week''s messaging from the Fed? [ZH: The initial reaction was a puke across all major US equity markets followed by the ubiquitous overnight ramp to erase the loss. Thursday saw more selling at the open which extended into the US cash open on Friday.] {ZH: At which point, a buying panic ensued, lifting The Dow and S&P back into the green post-FOMC, Nasdaq down modestly, but Small Caps crushed.] The All-Important 10-Year Treasury Yields on the all-important 10-year Treasury note spiked to 1.876% on Wednesday - a 10bps surge.
After its first policy meeting in 2022, the US Federal Reserve said it is likely to hike interest rates in March, for the first time in more than three years and confirmed plans to end its bond purchases, introduced during the coronavirus pandemic, in the Feds battle to control surging inflation.
Oaktree Threatens Rift With China After Seizing Evergrande''s Prized "Versailles" Plot, Derailing Massive Restructuring Plan While the collapse and default of Evergrande was 2021''s business, the subsequent restructuring - and its potentially absurd fallout - will be with us for a long time. Take the fluid restructuring plan of China''s most indebted property developer: according to Bloomberg , Chinese authorities are considering a proposal to dismantle China Evergrande Group by selling the bulk of its assets. The restructuring proposal, which was submitted to Beijing by officials in Evergrandes home province of Guangdong, calls for the developer to sell most assets except for its separately listed property management and electric vehicle units. A group led by China Cinda Asset Management, a state-owned bad debt manager and major Evergrande creditor, would take over any unsold property assets, the Bloomberg sources said. If approved by Beijing, the plan - which we previewed several weeks ago - would mark the biggest step yet by China''s government to prevent a disorderly collapse of the worlds most indebted developer from roiling Chinas financial markets and economy before the closely watched Communist Party leadership transition later this year.

Peter Schiff: "We''re Screwed & The Fed Knows It"

03:40pm, Friday, 28'th Jan 2022 Zero Hedge
Peter Schiff: "We''re Screwed & The Fed Knows It" Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com, The Federal Reserve wrapped up its first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year this week without any real surprises. Despite everybody screaming about an inflation problem, the Fed will keep its loose, inflationary monetary policy in play for at least two more months. Interest rates remain locked at zero. But the FOMC said it will likely raise rates soon. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. Most analysts expect soon to be at the March meeting. But Jerome Powell left some wiggle-room in the trajectory of the Feds monetary policy, saying, At this time, we havent made any decisions about the path of policy. I stress again that well be humble and nimble. Powell also indicated that the Fed would be data-dependent. As Peter Schiff said in his podcast, If the Federal Reserve was depending on the data, they would have raised interest rates a long time ago, and they would now be much higher than zero. Its important to reiterate that despite the inflation freight train , the Fed left interest rates at zero.

Peter Schiff: This Is Going To Be Stagflation

01:51pm, Thursday, 27'th Jan 2022 Zero Hedge
Peter Schiff: This Is Going To Be Stagflation Via SchiffGold.com, Peter Schiff was a guest on the Wharton Business Daily podcast produced by the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Peter talked about inflation and how it will impact the US economy moving forward. He said ultimately, we’re heading toward stagflation. Peter said inflation has been a problem for a long time. A lot of people just weren’t cognizant of it. A lot of the inflation was in financial assets, so, stock prices were going up because of inflation, bond prices, real estate prices. That didn’t bother people because they thought inflation was making them rich .” Nevertheless, consumer prices were also going up. But the government was able to keep that hidden with a rigged CPI formula that understates inflation. But in 2021, the price increases got so large, the CPI couldn’t hide them. Based on CPI, prices were up about 7% last year . But if we still measured prices using the same type of CPI that we had in the 1970s or 1980s, prices rose closer to 15%.
Heres a look at the key bond market deals on Thursday.

Bond Pain Set To Ease As Curve Gets Ahead Of The Fed

03:35am, Wednesday, 26'th Jan 2022 Zero Hedge
Bond Pain Set To Ease As Curve Gets Ahead Of The Fed By Garfield Reynolds, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and analyst This months bond rout is overdone. Wednesdays Federal Reserve meeting may offer more carrots than sticks for debt investors. While central banks are moving to exit quantitative easing as they look past the pandemic into a world of faster inflation, its worth remembering that Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this month that it would be a long road to normal from where we are now. This characterization jars with rates markets pricing in four hikes this year and yield curves that are threatening to flatten too far and too quickly. Keep in mind that the Feds plan to rapidly shrink its balance sheet should help deliver a steeper yield curve, in contrast to the flattening implied by commentators including JPMorgan Chase & Co.s Jamie Dimon, who see the risk of more than four rate hikes this year. Dimon has been wrong-footed on rates before -- including a 2018 warning that 10-year Treasury yields would hit 5% -- yet traders are falling over each other to catch the bandwagon.
In Catastrophic Month For "Smart Money", Goldman Saw Biggest Hedge Fund Buying Since 2020 On Monday Amid record volumes and a sharp intra-day price reversal in the US equity markets yesterday, and with confused retail investors first panic selling then panic buying as they chased the unprecedented reversal in momentum on Monday ... the Goldman Sachs Prime book saw the largest 1-day net buying since Nov 20 (a +3.9 standard deviation vs. the average daily net flow of the past year), driven by short covers and to a lesser extent long buys (1.6 to 1). North America was by far the most net bought region followed by EM Asia, while DM Asia was the most $ net sold. Here is the breakdown from the latest Goldman Prime report. There are some staggering datapoints here. After 8 straight days of net selling, US equities on the GS Prime book saw the largest $ net buying since Dec 17th (+3.4 SDs), driven short covers and to a lesser extent long buys (2.3 to 1). Yesterdays $ short covering in US equities driven by Macro Products was the 5th largest in the past five years (+3.0 SDs).
Tesla filed a counter lawsuit against JPMorgan related to a bond deal secured seven years ago between the two companies. At the center of the lawsuit is a claim that JPMorgan is biased against Tesla

Cryptocurrency and Stocks Futures Slump as Market Fears Rise

08:42am, Monday, 24'th Jan 2022 Action Forex
Cryptocurrency prices continued their sell-off during the weekend as investors continued focusing on multiple events. For example, there are worries about the rising bond yields in the United States. Just last week, the ten-year bond yields rose to a two-year high while the 2-year and the 10-year rose to a two-year high. Rising bond yields [] The post Cryptocurrency and Stocks Futures Slump as Market Fears Rise appeared first on Action Forex .

Income Beyond Bonds

12:27am, Sunday, 23'rd Jan 2022 S&P Global Platts

China''s Yield Advantage Over U.S. Bonds Narrows

10:56am, Friday, 21'st Jan 2022 The Wall Street Journal
The extra yield that Chinese government bonds offer over U.S. Treasurys this week dropped below a percentage point for the first time in nearly three years, as the central banks of the worlds two largest economies move in opposite directions.
Markets Yesterday, investor confidence faded throughout the day and finally resulted even in a standard risk-off repositioning. A positive risk sentiment in Asia encouraged by the outlook for further PBOC easing initially only modestly inspired European investors. US equities tried to do better despite mixed US data, including an unexpected jump in US weekly jobless [] The post Risk-off This Time Supported a (Temporary?) Change Dynamics on Bond Markets appeared first on Action Forex .
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