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At Close: Jun 03, 2026
July 2020 Yield Curve Update
11:27am, Sunday, 02'nd Aug 2020
The Fed is failing us. It started out great.
'Insanely Stupid' To Chase Stocks As Economy Plunges?
11:05am, Sunday, 02'nd Aug 2020
Previously, we noted the market remained confined to its consolidation channel. That remained the case again this week and keeps our allocation models primarily on hold at the moment.
Avoiding A Second Wave
06:50am, Sunday, 02'nd Aug 2020
About two-thirds of this month's comment is about COVID-19 and the risk of a second wave. Without an effective vaccine, one of the most important priorities should be increasing the speed of testing.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Payroll Employment Report Accurate?
12:58am, Sunday, 02'nd Aug 2020
It is a big week for data, with a focus on employment. The payroll employment report has been a bright spot in the economic rebound story. Is it a little too bright? Corporate earnings reports, the
Navigating The Pandemic And Beyond
12:43am, Sunday, 02'nd Aug 2020
We still expect the economy to remain on a recovery path but it will not be as quick as earlier assumed.
3 Reasons Why Treasury Rates Can Still Hit 0% (Part II)
08:57am, Friday, 31'st Jul 2020
Deflation remains a more credible risk, not inflation. The output gap suggests core inflation could sink below 0.5% in the coming years.
Fed's Assets Fall By $16 Billion, -$220 Billion Since June 10: Week 7 Of Balance Sheet Shrinkage
07:30am, Friday, 31'st Jul 2020
Total assets on the Fed's balance sheet for the week ended July 29 fell by $16 billion from the prior week to $6.95 trillion.
Fed Reinforces Commitment To Ongoing Monetary Policy Support
06:42am, Friday, 31'st Jul 2020
Given the recent loss of economic momentum, it's also possible that the Fed adjusts its purchases of U.S.
Will A Demand-Side Shockwave Keep Inflation Muted?
01:38am, Friday, 31'st Jul 2020
Since 1960, savings as a percentage of disposable personal income has ranged from roughly 3-15%, holding within a 5-10% range since 2010.
Federal Deficit In COVID-19 Era
07:22am, Thursday, 30'th Jul 2020
June deficit was a whopping $864.07 billion, the largest on record. This brings Trump's 1-term cumulative deficits to a staggering $5.105 trillion, far in excess to the $3.52 trillion average for Obam
Fed Remains Dovish, Despite Some Pickup In Economy
07:10am, Thursday, 30'th Jul 2020
The virus has hurt the recovery, but by how much? What's left in the Federal Reserve's toolbox? What's been the source of the weakness in USD?
Beyond The Inflation Regime Collapse
07:05am, Thursday, 30'th Jul 2020
I guess others are bit tweaked, but they should be removed - repeat content. A commitment to something like MMT would spell the end of the current inflation-targeting regime, by explicitly shifting fr
Fed Watch: Gonna Take 2 Weeks; Gonna Have A Fine Vacation
06:51am, Thursday, 30'th Jul 2020
After a fast and furious start, the balance sheet had actually been shrinking for a four-week period before some modest increases the last two weeks.
A Modest Proposal
04:38am, Thursday, 30'th Jul 2020
The nagging question at this time, and still unaddressed, is what the Fed's exit strategy is and what it will do about the elephant in the room - its balance sheet.
It's Still Early In The Shift To Real Assets
11:37pm, Wednesday, 29'th Jul 2020
Long bonds was the trade of a generation, as high debt and low inflation pushed yields lower for forty years.
