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At Close: Jun 03, 2026
In June, for the third month in a row, money supply growth surged to an all-time high. The growth rate has never been higher, with the 1970s the only period that comes close.

Fed Stimulus Has Created The 'Cobra Effect'

11:21am, Sunday, 26'th Jul 2020
The market had remained within a consolidation range since the mid-June highs. With the late week sell-off, we have updated our risk/reward ranges.

Weekly Commentary: Crossing Red Lines

09:33am, Sunday, 26'th Jul 2020
COVID stimulus stoked bubble dynamics for global risk assets, certainly including Chinese equities. This bubble has turned unstable.

Explaining The Credit Cycle

08:37am, Sunday, 26'th Jul 2020
This article summarises why the credit cycle leads to alternate booms and slumps. It is only with this in mind that they can be properly understood as current economic conditions evolve.
Economic data continues to show modest improvement. I find this unconvincing, and I will try to explain.

Let's Make A Deal

01:04am, Sunday, 26'th Jul 2020
Jobless claims rose last week for the first time since March - there are over 16 million who filed for ongoing benefits last week.

Are Treasury Yields Poised To Test New Lows?

07:41am, Friday, 24'th Jul 2020
Considering renewed concern that the US economic recovery is cooling, deteriorating US-China relations, and few signs that America is getting control of the coronavirus, it all adds up to a strengthen

Inflation/Deflation: The Economy Is An Elephant

11:19am, Thursday, 23'rd Jul 2020
Adding up sharply deflationary and equally severe inflationary trends to get a total inflation reading near zero will be utterly meaningless.

It's 'Funding' Mental

07:22am, Thursday, 23'rd Jul 2020
The Federal Reserve has thus far come to the rescue to avoid another financial crisis, realizing how vital it is to prevent another meltdown from a funding perspective.
The extreme opposition of Shelton’s nomination as a Fed Governor is due in part to her being a heterodox thinker, but the Fed could benefit from a different viewpoint.

Pig In The Python: The Growing Threat Of Inflation

11:21pm, Wednesday, 22'nd Jul 2020
There may be a shift in Federal Reserve policy concerning its dual mandate of maintaining full employment while keeping a lid on inflation.

Trump's $1.6 Trillion Liquidity Reserve

04:51am, Wednesday, 22'nd Jul 2020
The Treasury General Account has amassed $1.6 trillion since March that the administration will likely unleash into the economy before the November election.
Yesterday, the market broke out of its consolidation range that we have been discussing over the past several weeks.
According to popular thinking, not every increase in the supply of money will have an effect on the production of goods.
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