iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF Forecast
Red day on Friday for iShares U.S. Treasury Bond
(Updated on May 17, 2024)
The iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF price fell by -0.200% on the last day (Friday, 17th May 2024) from $22.51 to $22.47. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.178% from a day low at $22.46 to a day high of $22.50. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.6% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 2 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 6 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $145.50 million.
The ETF lies the upper part of a narrow and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $22.52 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -2.04% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $21.55 and $22.06 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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GOVT Signals & Forecast
The iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $22.43 and $22.32. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, May 15, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.311%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF
iShares U.S. Treasury Bond finds support from accumulated volume at $22.23 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.0400 between high and low, or 0.178%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.192%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (GOVT) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 20th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 20th we expect iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF to open at $22.48, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $22.38 and $22.55, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.0815 (+/-0.36%) up or down from last closing price. If iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.73% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $22.54 (0.33%) than the support at $22.23 (1.05%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF ETF A Buy?
iShares U.S. Treasury Bond holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.
Current score: -2.426 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF of Monday, May 20, 2024
| Fair opening price May 20, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $22.48 ( 0.0445%) | $22.47 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for GOVT
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 22.52 | 0.223 % | |
| R2 | 22.50 | 0.155 % | ||
| R1 | 22.49 | 0.113 % | ||
| Current price: | 22.47 | |||
| Support | S1 | 22.46 | -0.0235 % | |
| S2 | 22.45 | -0.0655 % | ||
| S3 | 22.44 | -0.134 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 22.64 | 0.757 % | |
| R2 | 22.57 | 0.445 % | ||
| R1 | 22.54 | 0.334 % | ||
| Current price | 22.47 | |||
| Support | S1 | 22.23 | -1.05% | |
| S2 | 22.21 | -1.14% | ||
| S3 | 22.16 | -1.38% |
GOVT Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May 01, 2024 | May 01, 2024 | May 07, 2024 | $0.0596 | 0.266% |
| 2 | Mar 28, 2024 | Apr 01, 2024 | Apr 05, 2024 | $0.0583 | 0.260% |
| 3 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 07, 2024 | $0.0534 | 0.234% |
| 4 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 07, 2024 | $0.0532 | 0.234% |
| 5 | Dec 14, 2023 | Dec 14, 2023 | Dec 14, 2023 | $0.0610 | 0.266% |
FAQ
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