AIA Group Limited Stock Forecast
Green day on Friday for AIA Group Limited
(Updated on Apr 26, 2024)
The AIA Group Limited stock price gained 4.75% on the last trading day (Friday, 26th Apr 2024), rising from HK$51.55 to HK$54.00. It has now gained 5 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 5.52% from a day low at HK$51.60 to a day high of HK$54.45. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 11.11% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 25 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 83 million shares were bought and sold for approximately HK$4.50 billion.
The stock lies the upper part of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at HK$56.25 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -23.72% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between HK$33.28 and HK$42.91 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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1299.HK Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, April 16, 2024, and so far it has risen 17.39%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The AIA Group Limited stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at HK$54.32. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at HK$49.71. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for AIA Group Limited stock
AIA Group Limited finds support from accumulated volume at HK$52.55 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved HK$2.85 between high and low, or 5.52%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.12%.
Our recommended stop-loss: HK$51.89 (-3.90%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 8 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (1299.HK) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 29th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 29th we expect AIA Group Limited to open at HK$53.35, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between HK$52.18 and HK$55.82, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-HK$1.82 (+/-3.37%) up or down from last closing price. If AIA Group Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.74% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at HK$54.25 (0.46%) than the support at HK$52.55 (2.69%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is AIA Group Limited stock A Buy?
AIA Group Limited holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.
Current score: 0.705 Hold/Accumulate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for AIA Group Limited of Monday, April 29, 2024
| Fair opening price April 29, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| HK$53.35 ( 1.20%) | HK$54.00 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for 1299.HK
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 56.20 | 4.07 % | |
| R2 | 55.11 | 2.06 % | ||
| R1 | 54.44 | 0.81 % | ||
| Current price: | 54.00 | |||
| Support | S1 | 52.26 | -3.22 % | |
| S2 | 51.59 | -4.47 % | ||
| S3 | 50.50 | -6.48 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 60.25 | 11.57 % | |
| R2 | 56.00 | 3.70 % | ||
| R1 | 54.25 | 0.463 % | ||
| Current price | 54.00 | |||
| Support | S1 | 52.55 | -2.69% | |
| S2 | 48.60 | -10.00% | ||
| S3 | 46.00 | -14.81% |
1299 Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May 29, 2024 | May 29, 2024 | Jun 14, 2024 | HK$1.19 | 2.20% |
| 2 | Sep 11, 2023 | Sep 11, 2023 | Sep 11, 2023 | HK$0.423 | 0.638% |
| 3 | May 23, 2023 | May 23, 2023 | May 23, 2023 | HK$1.13 | 1.45% |
| 4 | Sep 09, 2022 | Sep 09, 2022 | Sep 09, 2022 | HK$0.403 | 0.539% |
| 5 | May 24, 2022 | May 24, 2022 | May 24, 2022 | HK$1.08 | 1.40% |
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