Arch Capital Group Ltd. Stock Forecast
Weaker technical forecast for Arch Capital Group Ltd. as stock downgraded to Sell Candidate.
(Updated on Apr 26, 2024)
The Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock price fell by -2.31% on the last day (Friday, 26th Apr 2024) from $93.05 to $90.90. It has now fallen 4 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.81% from a day low at $90.79 to a day high of $92.43. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still up by 1.02% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 277 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $129.38 million.
Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 13.46% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $103.14 and $110.86 at the end of this 3-month period.
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ACGL Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $92.73 and $91.62. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, April 05, 2024, and so far it has fallen -4.21%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock
Arch Capital Group Ltd. finds support from accumulated volume at $87.59 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $1.64 between high and low, or 1.81%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.34%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (ACGL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 29th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 29th we expect Arch Capital Group Ltd. to open at $91.37, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $89.29 and $92.51, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.61 (+/-1.77%) up or down from last closing price. If Arch Capital Group Ltd. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.55% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $91.48 (0.64%) than the support at $87.59 (3.64%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
Arch Capital Group Ltd. will release earnings BMO on Monday, April 29, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $2.06. We will update the financials statements for Arch Capital Group Ltd., that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 2.40% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock A Buy?
The Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe Arch Capital Group Ltd. will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -4.063 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Arch Capital Group Ltd. of Monday, April 29, 2024
| Fair opening price April 29, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $91.37 ( 0.521%) | $90.90 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ACGL
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 93.01 | 2.32 % | |
| R2 | 92.39 | 1.64 % | ||
| R1 | 92.00 | 1.21 % | ||
| Current price: | 90.90 | |||
| Support | S1 | 90.75 | -0.168 % | |
| S2 | 90.36 | -0.594 % | ||
| S3 | 89.73 | -1.28 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 92.23 | 1.46 % | |
| R2 | 91.88 | 1.08 % | ||
| R1 | 91.48 | 0.638 % | ||
| Current price | 90.90 | |||
| Support | S1 | 87.59 | -3.64% | |
| S2 | 87.40 | -3.85% | ||
| S3 | 83.30 | -8.36% |
FAQ
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