Arch Capital Group Ltd. Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Jul 08, 2025 Loss -2.63%

The Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock price fell by -0.81% on the last day (Friday, 11th Jul 2025) from $88.56 to $87.84. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 0.753% from a day low at $87.70 to a day high of $88.36. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days but is still down by -2.71% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -675 thousand shares and in total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $148.85 million.

The stock lies in the lower of a falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $86.82 is broken, it will firstly indicate a stronger fall rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -3.25% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $84.00 and $91.76 at the end of this 3-month period.

ACGL Signals & Forecast

Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $88.79 and $91.51. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, July 01, 2025, and so far it has fallen -4.00%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock

There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.

In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.660 between high and low, or 0.753%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.91%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (ACGL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 14th

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 14th we expect Arch Capital Group Ltd. to open at $87.97, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $86.93 and $88.75, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.83 (+/-2.10%) up or down from last closing price. If Arch Capital Group Ltd. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.10% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $87.92, some $0.0800 (0.09%) from the current price of $87.84, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.

Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock A Buy?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. holds several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Current score: -2.362 Sell Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 14, 2025 - $87.97 ( 0.144%).

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