AppFolio Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
AppFolio stock upgraded to Hold/Accumulate.
(Updated on Apr 25, 2024)
The AppFolio stock price gained 0.347% on the last trading day (Thursday, 25th Apr 2024), rising from $215.90 to $216.65. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.12% from a day low at $211.31 to a day high of $217.90. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -3.32% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 425 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 585 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $126.65 million.
The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -3.97% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $199.59 and $235.53 at the end of this 3-month period.
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APPF Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 3.91%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The AppFolio stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $226.63. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $214.91. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for AppFolio stock
AppFolio finds support from accumulated volume at $214.79 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $6.59 between high and low, or 3.12%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.00%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $205.62 (-5.09%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 4 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (APPF) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 26th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 26th we expect AppFolio to open at $215.29, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $210.02 and $223.28, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$6.63 (+/-3.06%) up or down from last closing price. If AppFolio takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.12% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $214.79 (0.86%) than the resistance at $223.66 (3.24%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Earnings coming up
AppFolio will release earnings AMC on Thursday, April 25, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $0.84. We will update the financials statements for AppFolio, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 4.24% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is AppFolio stock A Buy?
AppFolio holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.982 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for AppFolio of Friday, April 26, 2024
| Fair opening price April 26, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $215.29 ( 0.629%) | $216.65 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for APPF
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 221.88 | 2.41 % | |
| R2 | 219.36 | 1.25 % | ||
| R1 | 217.80 | 0.533 % | ||
| Current price: | 216.65 | |||
| Support | S1 | 212.77 | -1.79 % | |
| S2 | 211.21 | -2.51 % | ||
| S3 | 208.70 | -3.67 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 248.71 | 14.80 % | |
| R2 | 246.74 | 13.89 % | ||
| R1 | 223.66 | 3.24 % | ||
| Current price | 216.65 | |||
| Support | S1 | 214.79 | -0.86% | |
| S2 | 212.49 | -1.92% | ||
| S3 | 208.50 | -3.76% |
FAQ
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