AltShares Merger Arbitrage ETF Forecast
AltShares Merger Arbitrage ETF price down 0.520% on Monday
(Updated on Apr 15, 2024)
The AltShares Merger Arbitrage ETF price fell by -0.520% on the last day (Monday, 15th Apr 2024) from $26.90 to $26.76. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.490% from a day low at $26.76 to a day high of $26.89. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -1.58% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 29 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 38 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.03 million.
Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect AltShares Merger Arbitrage ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $27.28 and $27.83 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
ARB Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The AltShares Merger Arbitrage ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $27.03 and $27.05. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, April 03, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.73%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). AltShares Merger Arbitrage gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs". The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Thursday, February 08, 2024 in the short-term chart.
Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.
Golden Star
The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Thursday, February 08, 2024 in the short-term chart.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for AltShares Merger Arbitrage ETF
AltShares Merger Arbitrage finds support from accumulated volume at $26.73 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.131 between high and low, or 0.490%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.365%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (ARB) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 16th
For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 16th we expect AltShares Merger Arbitrage ETF to open at $26.80, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $26.65 and $26.87, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.109 (+/-0.41%) up or down from last closing price. If AltShares Merger Arbitrage ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.81% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $26.79 (0.11%) than the support at $26.73 (0.12%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is AltShares Merger Arbitrage ETF ETF A Buy?
AltShares Merger Arbitrage holds several negative signals and is within a narrow and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.
Current score: -2.224 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for AltShares Merger Arbitrage ETF of Tuesday, April 16, 2024
| Fair opening price April 16, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $26.80 ( 0.163%) | $26.76 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ARB
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 26.93 | 0.654 % | |
| R2 | 26.88 | 0.466 % | ||
| R1 | 26.85 | 0.351 % | ||
| Current price: | 26.76 | |||
| Support | S1 | 26.75 | -0.0239 % | |
| S2 | 26.72 | -0.140 % | ||
| S3 | 26.67 | -0.327 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 27.05 | 1.08 % | |
| R2 | 26.93 | 0.635 % | ||
| R1 | 26.79 | 0.112 % | ||
| Current price | 26.76 | |||
| Support | S1 | 26.73 | -0.123% | |
| S2 | 26.71 | -0.187% | ||
| S3 | 26.64 | -0.445% |
ARB Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dec 14, 2022 | Dec 15, 2022 | Dec 19, 2022 | $1.08 | 4.20% |
| 2 | Dec 16, 2020 | Dec 17, 2020 | Dec 21, 2020 | $0.726 | 2.87% |
FAQ
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