Arch Coal Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Arch Coal stock downgraded to Sell Candidate
(Updated on May 02, 2024)
The Arch Coal stock price gained 0.98% on the last trading day (Thursday, 2nd May 2024), rising from $156.86 to $158.39. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.11% from a day low at $157.50 to a day high of $160.82. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -2.72% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -76 thousand shares and in total, 154 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $24.43 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -6.98% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $138.07 and $163.97 at the end of this 3-month period.
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ARCH Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 05, 2024, and so far it has risen 3.84%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Arch Coal stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $161.17 and $160.19. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Arch Coal stock
Arch Coal finds support from accumulated volume at $158.13 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $3.32 between high and low, or 2.11%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.78%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (ARCH) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 3rd
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 3rd we expect Arch Coal Inc. to open at $158.90, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $153.08 and $163.70, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$5.31 (+/-3.36%) up or down from last closing price. If Arch Coal Inc. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.71% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $158.13 (0.16%) than the resistance at $162.03 (2.30%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Arch Coal Inc. stock A Buy?
Arch Coal holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -1.476 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Arch Coal Inc. of Friday, May 3, 2024
| Fair opening price May 3, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $158.90 ( 0.324%) | $158.39 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ARCH
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 162.22 | 2.42 % | |
| R2 | 160.96 | 1.62 % | ||
| R1 | 160.17 | 1.12 % | ||
| Current price: | 158.39 | |||
| Support | S1 | 157.64 | -0.477 % | |
| S2 | 156.85 | -0.97 % | ||
| S3 | 155.58 | -1.77 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 178.18 | 12.49 % | |
| R2 | 166.67 | 5.23 % | ||
| R1 | 162.03 | 2.30 % | ||
| Current price | 158.39 | |||
| Support | S1 | 158.13 | -0.164% | |
| S2 | 157.07 | -0.83% | ||
| S3 | 156.74 | -1.04% |
ARCH Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apr 25, 2024 | May 31, 2024 | Jun 14, 2024 | $1.11 | 0.701% |
| 2 | Feb 28, 2024 | Feb 28, 2024 | Mar 15, 2024 | $0.250 | 0.155% |
| 3 | Nov 29, 2023 | Nov 29, 2023 | Dec 15, 2023 | $0.88 | 0.557% |
| 4 | Jul 27, 2023 | Aug 30, 2023 | Sep 15, 2023 | $1.00 | 0.625% |
| 5 | Apr 27, 2023 | May 30, 2023 | Sep 15, 2023 | $2.45 | 1.53% |
FAQ
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