Algoma Steel Group Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Nov 05, 2025 Loss -12.31%

The Algoma Steel Group Inc. stock price fell by -2.51% on the last day (Monday, 17th Nov 2025) from $3.58 to $3.49. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 5.17% from a day low at $3.48 to a day high of $3.66. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -17.1% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -153 thousand shares and in total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $3.98 million.

The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -20.06% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $2.11 and $3.47 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

ASTL Signals & Forecast

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Algoma Steel Group Inc. stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $3.73 and $3.91. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, October 23, 2025, and so far it has fallen -24.62%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Algoma Steel Group Inc. stock

Algoma Steel Group Inc. finds support from accumulated volume at $3.40 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.180 between high and low, or 5.17%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 4.13%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (ASTL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect Algoma Steel Group Inc. to open at $3.54, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $3.35 and $3.63, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.278 (+/-8.29%) up or down from last closing price. If Algoma Steel Group Inc. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 8.29% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $3.57 (2.29%) than the support at $3.40 (2.58%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Algoma Steel Group Inc. stock A Buy?

Algoma Steel Group Inc. holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Current score: -6.001 Strong Sell Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on November 18, 2025 - $3.54 ( 1.53%).

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