Aviat Networks Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Dec 09, 2024 Gain 1.02%

The Aviat Networks stock price fell by -0.721% on the last day (Thursday, 12th Dec 2024) from $18.02 to $17.89. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 5.03% from a day low at $17.70 to a day high of $18.59. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 14.17% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 150 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 302 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $5.40 million.

The stock lies the upper part of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $18.16 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -31.38% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $7.14 and $12.46 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

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AVNW Signals & Forecast

The Aviat Networks stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $17.57 and $16.91. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, November 06, 2024, and so far it has risen 30.58%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Aviat Networks stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $14.39 and $13.86. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Aviat Networks finds support just below today's level at $14.39. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $13.86 and $13.70.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.89 between high and low, or 5.03%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.98%.

The Aviat Networks stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stock may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: $17.45 (-2.48%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. The RSI14 is 76 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 25 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (AVNW) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 13th

For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 13th we expect Aviat Networks to open at $18.06, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $17.03 and $18.75, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.86 (+/-4.79%) up or down from last closing price. If Aviat Networks takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 9.58% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $20.07 (12.19%) than the support at $14.39 (19.56%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Aviat Networks stock A Buy?

Several short-term signals are positive, despite the stock being in a falling trend, we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for stock to perform well in the short-term.

Current score: 1.270 Buy Candidate Unchanged

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on December 13, 2024 - $18.06 ( 0.95%).