Churchill Downs Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jun 26, 2026 Gain 2.23%

The Churchill Downs stock price gained 1.97% on the last trading day (Thursday, 2nd Jul 2026), rising from $89.15 to $90.91. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.23% from a day low at $88.22 to a day high of $91.07. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still up by 3.59% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -100 thousand shares and in total, 803 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $73.03 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -5.96% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $75.66 and $91.05 at the end of this 3-month period.

CHDN Signals & Forecast

The Churchill Downs stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $88.30 and $87.38. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, May 26, 2026, and so far it has risen 9.44%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Churchill Downs stock

Churchill Downs finds support from accumulated volume at $89.86 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $2.85 (3.23%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.96%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $87.09 (-4.21%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 26 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (CHDN) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 6th

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 6th we expect Churchill Downs to open at $90.07, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $89.37 and $92.45, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$3.08 (+/-3.45%) up or down from last closing price. If Churchill Downs takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.45% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $89.86 (1.15%) than the resistance at $92.30 (1.53%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Churchill Downs stock A Buy?

Churchill Downs holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold candidate.

Current score: 0.971 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 6, 2026 - $90.07 ( 0.93%).

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