Churchill Downs Stock Forecast

Hold candidate since Nov 17, 2025

The Churchill Downs stock price gained 0.554% on the last trading day (Monday, 17th Nov 2025), rising from $99.29 to $99.84. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.20% from a day low at $98.05 to a day high of $101.18. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 1.25% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 185 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 664 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $66.26 million.

The stock lies the upper part of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $102.44 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -4.35% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $81.44 and $97.98 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

CHDN Signals & Forecast

The Churchill Downs stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $99.33 and $96.27. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, October 23, 2025, and so far it has fallen -3.70%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Churchill Downs stock

Churchill Downs finds support from accumulated volume at $96.61 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $3.13 (3.20%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.58%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $95.64 (-4.20%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 17 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (CHDN) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect Churchill Downs to open at $99.69, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $98.32 and $101.36, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$3.04 (+/-3.09%) up or down from last closing price. If Churchill Downs takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.09% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $100.64 (0.80%) than the support at $96.61 (3.24%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Dividend Warning For CHDN

Dividend coming up for CHDN: Ex-dividend date (Friday 5th December, 2025) is 16 days away. The dividend is $0.440.

Is Churchill Downs stock A Buy?

Churchill Downs holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold candidate.

Current score: -0.290 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on November 18, 2025 - $99.69 ( 0.152%).

Want to trade but not sure how? Our step-by-step guide can help.
Skip the guide? Open account with our trusted broker*
*Your capital is at risk