Collegium Pharmaceutical Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Oct 16, 2025 Gain 36.53%

The Collegium Pharmaceutical stock price fell by -1.39% on the last day (Monday, 17th Nov 2025) from $45.98 to $45.34. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 6.58% from a day low at $43.59 to a day high of $46.46. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 25.6% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 91 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 338 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $15.32 million.

The stock lies in the upper part of a very wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $47.43 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 3.70% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $33.91 and $49.18 at the end of this 3-month period.

COLL Signals & Forecast

The Collegium Pharmaceutical stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $45.10 and $36.76. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, and so far it has fallen -4.24%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Collegium Pharmaceutical stock

Collegium Pharmaceutical finds support from accumulated volume at $43.53 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock may move very much during the day (volatility) and with a very large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "very high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $2.87 between high and low, or 6.58%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 4.48%.

The Collegium Pharmaceutical stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stock may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: $43.61 (-3.82%) (This stock has very high daily movements and this gives very high risk. The RSI14 is 81 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 3 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (COLL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect Collegium Pharmaceutical to open at $45.13, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $44.50 and $46.18, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.68 (+/-3.77%) up or down from last closing price. If Collegium Pharmaceutical takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.77% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $45.98 (1.41%) than the support at $43.53 (3.99%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Collegium Pharmaceutical stock A Buy?

Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Collegium Pharmaceutical stock to perform well in the short-term.

Current score: 2.501 Buy Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on November 18, 2025 - $45.13 ( 0.462%).

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