iShares Commodities Select Strategy ETF Forecast

Hold candidate since Jan 17, 2025 Loss -0.60%

The iShares Commodities Select Strategy ETF price fell by -0.600% on the last day (Tuesday, 21st Jan 2025) from $26.68 to $26.52. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.473% from a day low at $26.42 to a day high of $26.54. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 3.84% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 80 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 157 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $4.17 million.

The ETFis at the upper part of a horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $26.94 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect iShares Commodities Select Strategy ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $24.17 and $26.55 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

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COMT Signals & Forecast

The iShares Commodities Select Strategy ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $26.61. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $25.79. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, January 15, 2025, and so far it has fallen -1.63%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely. The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Monday, December 09, 2024 for the short-term and also have Golden Star Signal for the medium-term dated Monday, December 09, 2024.

Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for iShares Commodities Select Strategy ETF

iShares Commodities Select Strategy finds support from accumulated volume at $25.98 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.125 between high and low, or 0.473%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.764%.

The iShares Commodities Select Strategy ETF is overbought on RSI14 and the RSI has been falling for the last couple of days. This together with the fact that the ETF is in the upper part of the trend poses a possible good selling opportunity for the short-term trader. However, one should note that some ETF may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: $25.73 (-2.99%) (This ETF has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 78 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 3 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (COMT) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 22nd

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 22nd we expect iShares Commodities Select Strategy ETF to open at $26.49, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $26.21 and $26.83, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.314 (+/-1.18%) up or down from last closing price. If iShares Commodities Select Strategy ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.37% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $26.54 (0.08%) than the support at $25.98 (2.04%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is iShares Commodities Select Strategy ETF ETF A Buy?

iShares Commodities Select Strategy holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.

Current score: -0.835 Hold/Accumulate Unchanged

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on January 22, 2025 - $26.49 ( 0.107%).