Cenovus Stock Forecast
Cenovus stock downgraded to Sell Candidate
(Updated on May 01, 2024)
The Cenovus stock price fell by -1.07% on the last day (Wednesday, 1st May 2024) from $20.56 to $20.34. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.24% from a day low at $20.06 to a day high of $20.91. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still down by -1.74% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 543 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 16 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $328.13 million.
Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 35.12% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $27.48 and $31.47 at the end of this 3-month period.
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CVE Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Cenovus stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $21.10 and $20.40. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, April 10, 2024, and so far it has fallen -6.70%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Cenovus stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $17.92 and $17.46. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Cenovus finds support just below today's level at $17.92. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $17.46 and $16.22.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.85 between high and low, or 4.24%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.77%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (CVE) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 2nd
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 2nd we expect Cenovus Energy Inc to open at $20.44, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $19.83 and $20.85, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.514 (+/-2.53%) up or down from last closing price. If Cenovus Energy Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.05% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $20.56 (1.08%) than the support at $17.92 (11.90%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Cenovus Energy Inc stock A Buy?
The Cenovus stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe Cenovus will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -4.056 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Cenovus Energy Inc of Thursday, May 2, 2024
| Fair opening price May 2, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $20.44 ( 0.475%) | $20.34 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for CVE
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 21.29 | 4.65 % | |
| R2 | 20.96 | 3.06 % | ||
| R1 | 20.76 | 2.07 % | ||
| Current price: | 20.34 | |||
| Support | S1 | 20.11 | -1.12 % | |
| S2 | 19.91 | -2.11 % | ||
| S3 | 19.59 | -3.70 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 21.09 | 3.69 % | |
| R2 | 20.70 | 1.77 % | ||
| R1 | 20.56 | 1.08 % | ||
| Current price | 20.34 | |||
| Support | S1 | 17.92 | -11.90% | |
| S2 | 17.46 | -14.16% | ||
| S3 | 16.22 | -20.26% |
CVE Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 15, 2024 | Mar 14, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $0.104 | 0.520% |
| 2 | Nov 02, 2023 | Dec 14, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.100 | 0.601% |
| 3 | Jul 27, 2023 | Sep 14, 2023 | Sep 29, 2023 | $0.106 | 0.509% |
| 4 | Apr 26, 2023 | Jun 14, 2023 | Jun 30, 2023 | $0.105 | 0.618% |
| 5 | Feb 16, 2023 | Mar 14, 2023 | Mar 31, 2023 | $0.0760 | 0.435% |
FAQ
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