Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF Forecast
Evaluation of Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Apr 22, 2024)
The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF price fell by -1.21% on the last day (Monday, 22nd Apr 2024) from $26.51 to $26.19. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.59% from a day low at $26.12 to a day high of $26.53. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 5.27% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 109 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 997 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $26.11 million.
The ETF lies in the middle of a strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 22.62% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $30.41 and $32.60 at the end of this 3-month period.
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DBA Signals & Forecast
There are mixed signals in the ETF today. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.21%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely. The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $25.74 and $24.28. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund finds support from accumulated volume at $25.26 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.415 (1.59%) between high and low. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.70%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $25.38 (-3.10%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)
Trading Expectations (DBA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 23rd
For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 23rd we expect Invesco DB Agriculture Fund to open at $26.28, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $25.80 and $26.58, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.392 (+/-1.50%) up or down from last closing price. If Invesco DB Agriculture Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.99% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $26.51 (1.22%) than the support at $25.26 (3.55%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF A Buy?
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF to perform well in the short-term. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 1.388 Buy Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Invesco DB Agriculture Fund of Tuesday, April 23, 2024
| Fair opening price April 23, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $26.28 ( 0.337%) | $26.19 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for DBA
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 26.69 | 1.92 % | |
| R2 | 26.53 | 1.32 % | ||
| R1 | 26.44 | 0.94 % | ||
| Current price: | 26.19 | |||
| Support | S1 | 26.12 | -0.268 % | |
| S2 | 26.02 | -0.642 % | ||
| S3 | 25.86 | -1.25 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0 | . | |
| R2 | 0 | . | ||
| R1 | 26.51 | 1.22 % | ||
| Current price | 26.19 | |||
| Support | S1 | 25.26 | -3.55% | |
| S2 | 25.07 | -4.28% | ||
| S3 | 24.76 | -5.46% |
DBA Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | $0.96 | 4.57% |
| 2 | Jan 24, 2022 | Dec 19, 2022 | Dec 23, 2022 | $0.0960 | 0.475% |
| 3 | Jan 18, 2019 | Dec 23, 2019 | Dec 31, 2019 | $0.257 | 1.55% |
| 4 | Dec 21, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | Dec 31, 2018 | $0.180 | 1.06% |
| 5 | Dec 15, 2008 | Dec 15, 2008 | Dec 15, 2008 | $0.450 | 1.92% |
FAQ
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