Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF upgraded from Sell Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on May 03, 2024)
The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF price gained 2.22% on the last trading day (Friday, 3rd May 2024), rising from $23.45 to $23.97. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.88% from a day low at $23.67 to a day high of $24.11. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -9.58% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 203 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 906 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $21.71 million.
The ETF lies in the lower part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $23.52 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 20.23% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $28.28 and $32.53 at the end of this 3-month period.
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DBA Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, May 02, 2024, and so far it has risen 2.22%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $24.74 and $24.91. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund finds support from accumulated volume at $23.84 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.445 between high and low, or 1.88%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 2.40%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $22.68 (-5.40%) (This ETF has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 1 day ago.)
Trading Expectations (DBA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 6th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 6th we expect Invesco DB Agriculture Fund to open at $23.92, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $23.43 and $24.51, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.537 (+/-2.24%) up or down from last closing price. If Invesco DB Agriculture Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.48% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $23.84 (0.54%) than the resistance at $24.76 (3.30%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF A Buy?
Invesco DB Agriculture Fund holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.151 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Invesco DB Agriculture Fund of Monday, May 6, 2024
| Fair opening price May 6, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $23.92 ( 0.229%) | $23.97 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for DBA
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 24.36 | 1.63 % | |
| R2 | 24.19 | 0.92 % | ||
| R1 | 24.08 | 0.480 % | ||
| Current price: | 23.97 | |||
| Support | S1 | 23.75 | -0.94 % | |
| S2 | 23.64 | -1.38 % | ||
| S3 | 23.47 | -2.09 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 25.26 | 5.38 % | |
| R2 | 25.07 | 4.59 % | ||
| R1 | 24.76 | 3.30 % | ||
| Current price | 23.97 | |||
| Support | S1 | 23.84 | -0.542% | |
| S2 | 23.59 | -1.59% | ||
| S3 | 22.45 | -6.34% |
DBA Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | $0.96 | 4.57% |
| 2 | Jan 24, 2022 | Dec 19, 2022 | Dec 23, 2022 | $0.0960 | 0.475% |
| 3 | Jan 18, 2019 | Dec 23, 2019 | Dec 31, 2019 | $0.257 | 1.55% |
| 4 | Dec 21, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | Dec 31, 2018 | $0.180 | 1.06% |
| 5 | Dec 15, 2008 | Dec 15, 2008 | Dec 15, 2008 | $0.450 | 1.92% |
FAQ
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