Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF Forecast
Stronger technical forecast for Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF price after Friday trading.
(Updated on May 03, 2024)
The Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF price fell by -0.263% on the last day (Friday, 3rd May 2024) from $15.22 to $15.18. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.12% from a day low at $15.17 to a day high of $15.34. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -2.75% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -158 thousand shares and in total, 175 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $2.65 million.
Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 11.00% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $16.85 and $18.29 at the end of this 3-month period.
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DBO Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $15.53 and $15.67. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, April 15, 2024, and so far it has fallen -5.77%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF
Invesco DB Oil Fund finds support from accumulated volume at $14.74 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.170 between high and low, or 1.12%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.56%.
Invesco DB Oil Fund is oversold on RSI14 (22). Some ETFS may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.
Our recommended stop-loss: $14.38 (-5.25%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. Low RSI14 is 22 which reduces the risk some. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 14 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (DBO) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 6th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 6th we expect Invesco DB Oil Fund to open at $15.23, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $14.96 and $15.40, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.223 (+/-1.47%) up or down from last closing price. If Invesco DB Oil Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.94% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $15.58 (2.64%) than the support at $14.74 (2.90%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF A Buy?
Invesco DB Oil Fund holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.598 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Invesco DB Oil Fund of Monday, May 6, 2024
| Fair opening price May 6, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $15.23 ( 0.329%) | $15.18 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for DBO
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 15.40 | 1.45 % | |
| R2 | 15.34 | 1.02 % | ||
| R1 | 15.29 | 0.757 % | ||
| Current price: | 15.18 | |||
| Support | S1 | 15.17 | -0.0984 % | |
| S2 | 15.12 | -0.363 % | ||
| S3 | 15.06 | -0.791 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 16.07 | 5.86 % | |
| R2 | 16.06 | 5.80 % | ||
| R1 | 15.58 | 2.64 % | ||
| Current price | 15.18 | |||
| Support | S1 | 14.74 | -2.90% | |
| S2 | 14.70 | -3.16% | ||
| S3 | 14.48 | -4.61% |
DBO Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | $0.639 | 4.44% |
| 2 | Jan 24, 2022 | Dec 19, 2022 | Dec 23, 2022 | $0.100 | 0.667% |
| 3 | Jan 18, 2019 | Dec 23, 2019 | Dec 31, 2019 | $0.174 | 1.63% |
| 4 | Dec 21, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | Dec 31, 2018 | $0.134 | 1.58% |
| 5 | Dec 15, 2008 | Dec 15, 2008 | Dec 15, 2008 | $0.120 | 0.583% |
FAQ
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