Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF Forecast
Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF downgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Sell Candidate after Tuesday trading session.
(Updated on May 21, 2024)
The Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF price fell by -0.90% on the last day (Tuesday, 21st May 2024) from $15.56 to $15.42. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.37% from a day low at $15.29 to a day high of $15.50. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.98% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -306 thousand shares and in total, 182 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $2.80 million.
The ETF lies in the lower part of a weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $15.37 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 5.35% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $16.19 and $17.34 at the end of this 3-month period.
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DBO Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, May 01, 2024, and so far it has risen 1.58%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the ETF giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $15.64. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the short-term average at $15.38. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF
Invesco DB Oil Fund finds support from accumulated volume at $15.37 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.210 between high and low, or 1.37%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.23%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (DBO) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 22nd
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 22nd we expect Invesco DB Oil Fund to open at $15.40, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $15.21 and $15.63, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.211 (+/-1.37%) up or down from last closing price. If Invesco DB Oil Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.74% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $15.37 (0.32%) than the resistance at $15.58 (1.04%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF A Buy?
Invesco DB Oil Fund holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this ETF. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -2.054 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Invesco DB Oil Fund of Wednesday, May 22, 2024
| Fair opening price May 22, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $15.40 ( 0.108%) | $15.42 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for DBO
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 15.61 | 1.25 % | |
| R2 | 15.53 | 0.734 % | ||
| R1 | 15.48 | 0.412 % | ||
| Current price: | 15.42 | |||
| Support | S1 | 15.32 | -0.628 % | |
| S2 | 15.27 | -0.95 % | ||
| S3 | 15.19 | -1.47 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 16.07 | 4.22 % | |
| R2 | 16.06 | 4.15 % | ||
| R1 | 15.58 | 1.04 % | ||
| Current price | 15.42 | |||
| Support | S1 | 15.37 | -0.324% | |
| S2 | 14.74 | -4.41% | ||
| S3 | 14.48 | -6.10% |
DBO Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | $0.639 | 4.44% |
| 2 | Jan 24, 2022 | Dec 19, 2022 | Dec 23, 2022 | $0.100 | 0.667% |
| 3 | Jan 18, 2019 | Dec 23, 2019 | Dec 31, 2019 | $0.174 | 1.63% |
| 4 | Dec 21, 2018 | Dec 24, 2018 | Dec 31, 2018 | $0.134 | 1.58% |
| 5 | Dec 15, 2008 | Dec 15, 2008 | Dec 15, 2008 | $0.120 | 0.583% |
FAQ
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