Weaker technical forecast for Etsy as stock downgraded to Buy Candidate.
(Updated on Nov 26, 2021)
Buy or Hold candidate since 2021-10-18 Gain 27.80% PDF
The Etsy stock price fell by -1.86% on the last day (Friday, 26th Nov 2021) from $296.91 to $291.38. During the day the stock fluctuated 6.02% from a day low at $290.27 to a day high of $307.75. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 15.02% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -1 million shares and in total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $517.08 million.
The stock lies in the upper part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $298.13 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 34.63% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $326.49 and $401.37 at the end of this 3-month period.
Signals & Forecast
The Etsy stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $287.72 and $251.51. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, November 24, 2021, and so far it has fallen -1.86%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $271.27 and $252.57. There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Etsy finds support just below today's level at $271.27. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $252.57 and $239.62.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $17.48 between high and low, or 6.02%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 6.17%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $278.54 (-4.41%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 days ago.)
Is Etsy stock A Buy?
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Etsy stock to perform well in the short-term. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 3.314
Predicted Opening Price for Etsy of Monday, November 29, 2021
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and the closing price.
|Fair opening price November 29, 2021||Current price|
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On Nov 24, 2021 "Citigroup" gave "$245.00 - $320.00" rating for ETSY. The price target was set to $294.30+5.3%.
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