EUR/PLN Currency Pair Forecast
Weaker technical forecast for EUR/PLN as currency pair downgraded to Hold/Accumulate.
(Updated on Jun 28, 2024)
The EUR/PLN currency pair price fell by -0.0299% on the last day (Friday, 28th Jun 2024) from 4.31zł to 4.31zł. During the last trading day the currency pair fluctuated 0.262% from a day low at 4.31zł to a day high of 4.32zł. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.55% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 6 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 27 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately 116.08zł thousand.
The currency pair is moving within a narrow and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect EUR/PLN currency pair with a 90% probability to be traded between 4.28zł and 4.41zł at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and currency pairs seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Currency pairs turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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EURPLN Signals & Forecast
The EUR/PLN currency pair holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the currency pair giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the currency pair will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately 4.32zł. On a fall, the currency pair will find some support from the long-term average at approximately 4.30zł. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, June 25, 2024, and so far it has risen 0.296%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). EUR/PLN gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs". The currency pair had a Golden Star Signal on Sunday, April 14, 2024 in the short-term chart.
Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the currency pair in question.
Golden Star
The currency pair had a Golden Star Signal on Sunday, April 14, 2024 in the short-term chart.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the currency pair in question.
A sell signal from a double top formation was found on Friday, June 14, 2024 and based on theory for this formation the price should fall by -3.08% to 4.18zł within 46 trading days since signal was issued (Wednesday, August 21, 2024).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for EUR/PLN currency pair
EUR/PLN finds support from accumulated volume at 4.31zł and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the currency pair tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the currency pair moved 0.0113zł between high and low, or 0.262%. For the last week the currency pair has had daily average volatility of 0.348%.
Our recommended stop-loss: 4.09zł (-5.02%) (This currency pair has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 10 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (EURPLN) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 1st we expect EUR/PLN to open at 4.31zł, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between 4.29zł and 4.33zł, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-0.0202zł (+/-0.47%) up or down from last closing price. If EUR/PLN takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.94% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at 4.31zł (0.04%) than the support at 4.31zł (0.11%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is EUR/PLN currency pair A Buy?
EUR/PLN holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this currency pair since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.942 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for EUR/PLN of Monday, July 1, 2024
| Fair opening price July 1, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| 4.31zł ( 0.0029%) | 4.31zł |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for EURPLN
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 4.32 | 0.265% |
| R2 | 4.32 | 0.165% |
| R1 | 4.32 | 0.103% |
| Price | 4.31 | |
| S1 | 4.31 | -0.0970% |
| S2 | 4.30 | -0.159% |
| S3 | 4.30 | -0.259% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 4.32 | 0.236% |
| R2 | 4.31 | 0.0851% |
| R1 | 4.31 | 0.0387% |
| Price | 4.31 | |
| S1 | 4.31 | -0.105% |
| S2 | 4.28 | -0.608% |
| S3 | 4.26 | -1.23% |
FAQ
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