First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF Forecast
First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF downgraded from Buy Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Wednesday trading session.
(Updated on May 01, 2024)
The First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF price fell by -0.86% on the last day (Wednesday, 1st May 2024) from $53.78 to $53.32. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 2.39% from a day low at $53.08 to a day high of $54.35. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -0.3% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 18 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 89 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $4.77 million.
The ETF is at the lower part of a horizontal trend in the short term, and normally this may pose a good buying opportunity, though a breakdown through the bottom trend line at $52.46 will give a strong sell signal and a trend shift may be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $52.81 and $57.79 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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FV Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $54.04 and $55.36. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, April 29, 2024, and so far it has fallen -2.79%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF
First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 finds support from accumulated volume at $52.97 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the ETF moved $1.27 (2.39%) between high and low. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.61%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $50.98 (-4.38%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 2 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (FV) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 2nd
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 2nd we expect First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF to open at $53.58, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $52.40 and $54.24, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.92 (+/-1.73%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.46% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $52.97 (0.66%) than the resistance at $55.63 (4.33%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF ETF A Buy?
First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.449 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF of Thursday, May 2, 2024
| Fair opening price May 2, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $53.58 ( 0.495%) | $53.32 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for FV
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 54.85 | 2.87 % | |
| R2 | 54.37 | 1.97 % | ||
| R1 | 54.07 | 1.40 % | ||
| Current price: | 53.32 | |||
| Support | S1 | 53.10 | -0.414 % | |
| S2 | 52.80 | -0.98 % | ||
| S3 | 52.32 | -1.88 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 56.55 | 6.06 % | |
| R2 | 56.54 | 6.04 % | ||
| R1 | 55.63 | 4.33 % | ||
| Current price | 53.32 | |||
| Support | S1 | 52.97 | -0.656% | |
| S2 | 52.89 | -0.81% | ||
| S3 | 52.41 | -1.71% |
FV Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $0.0070 | 0.0122% |
| 2 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.0384 | 0.0745% |
| 3 | Sep 21, 2023 | Sep 22, 2023 | Sep 29, 2023 | $0.0100 | 0.0226% |
| 4 | Jun 26, 2023 | Jun 27, 2023 | Jun 30, 2023 | $0.0450 | 0.0959% |
| 5 | Mar 23, 2023 | Mar 24, 2023 | Mar 31, 2023 | $0.143 | 0.317% |
FAQ
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