First Trust Value Line Dividend Index ETF Forecast

Weaker technical forecast for First Trust Value Line Dividend Index as ETF downgraded to Buy Candidate.
(Updated on May 17, 2024)

FVD Signals & Forecast

Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The First Trust Value Line Dividend Index ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $42.21 and $41.22. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, April 16, 2024, and so far it has risen 6.23%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Thursday, May 02, 2024 in the short-term chart.

Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust Value Line Dividend Index ETF

First Trust Value Line Dividend Index finds support from accumulated volume at $41.57 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.180 between high and low, or 0.426%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.523%.

The First Trust Value Line Dividend Index ETF is extremely overbought on RSI14 (85). Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but since the ETF has broken the trend up, the chance for a major correction due to high RSI is very small as the ETF will find support at the trend broken. Since the First Trust Value Line Dividend Index has been rising for 10 days in a row, the risk over the next couple of days has increased. We don't expect a major reaction as the ETF is in very good shape technically, and therefore hold a positive evaluation despite the very short term risk.

Our recommended stop-loss: $40.55 (-4.43%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. The RSI14 is 85 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 23 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (FVD) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 20th

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 20th we expect First Trust Value Line Dividend Index Fund to open at $42.40, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $42.12 and $42.74, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.307 (+/-0.72%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust Value Line Dividend Index Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.45% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ $41.57, some $0.86 (2.03%) from the current price of $42.43, our system finds the risk reward attractive.

Is First Trust Value Line Dividend Index Fund ETF A Buy?

Several short-term signals are positive and the ETF has broken the horizontal trend up, which indicates an even stronger rate of rising. We conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for First Trust Value Line Dividend Index ETF to perform well in the short-term period. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Buy candidate.

Current score: 3.570 Buy Candidate Downgraded

Predicted Opening Price for First Trust Value Line Dividend Index Fund of Monday, May 20, 2024

The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.