First Trust Low Duration Mortgage ETF Forecast

Buy candidate since Jan 21, 2025

The First Trust Low Duration Mortgage ETF price gained 0.0205% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 21st Jan 2025), rising from $48.72 to $48.73. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.164% from a day low at $48.68 to a day high of $48.76. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.31% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 333 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 693 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $33.78 million.

The ETF is moving within a narrow and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect First Trust Low Duration Mortgage ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $48.18 and $48.82 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

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LMBS Signals & Forecast

Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The First Trust Low Duration Mortgage ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the ETF, but the ETF has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $48.56 and $48.72. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, January 14, 2025, and so far it has risen 0.744%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Thursday, January 16, 2025 for the short-term and also have Golden Star Signal for the medium-term dated Wednesday, June 12, 2024.

Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust Low Duration Mortgage ETF

First Trust Low Duration Mortgage finds support from accumulated volume at $48.67 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.0800 between high and low, or 0.164%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.288%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $44.86 (-7.95%) (This ETF has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 4 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (LMBS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 22nd

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 22nd we expect First Trust Low Duration Mortgage Opportunities ETF to open at $48.72, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $48.59 and $48.87, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.139 (+/-0.29%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust Low Duration Mortgage Opportunities ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.57% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $48.76 (0.06%) than the support at $48.67 (0.12%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is First Trust Low Duration Mortgage Opportunities ETF ETF A Buy?

Several short-term signals are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity, as there is a fair chance for First Trust Low Duration Mortgage ETF to perform well in the short-term period. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Buy candidate.

Current score: 2.292 Buy Candidate Upgraded

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on January 22, 2025 - $48.72 ( 0.0137%).