Novavax Stock Forecast

Hold candidate since Jul 13, 2026

The Novavax stock price fell by -4.50% on the last day (Monday, 13th Jul 2026) from $9.33 to $8.91. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 5.28% from a day low at $8.81 to a day high of $9.27. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.34% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -1 million shares and in total, 4 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $34.30 million.

The stock lies in the lower part of a very wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $8.89 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 9.05% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $9.70 and $12.63 at the end of this 3-month period.

NVAX Signals & Forecast

There are mixed signals in the stock today. The Novavax stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $9.36 and $9.44. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, June 10, 2026, and so far it has risen 4.09%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Novavax stock

Novavax finds support from accumulated volume at $8.88 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.465 between high and low, or 5.28%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 5.00%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $8.38 (-5.96%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 21 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (NVAX) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 14th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 14th we expect Novavax Inc to open at $9.00, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $8.63 and $9.19, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.551 (+/-6.38%) up or down from last closing price. If Novavax Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.38% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $8.88 (0.34%) than the resistance at $9.23 (3.59%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Novavax Inc stock A Buy?

Novavax holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold candidate.

Current score: -0.341 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 14, 2026 - $9.00 ( 0.95%).

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