Novavax Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Jul 22, 2026 Loss -7.46%

The Novavax stock price fell by -1.61% on the last day (Friday, 31st Jul 2026) from $7.44 to $7.32. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.81% from a day low at $7.22 to a day high of $7.49. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -10.84% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 351 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 3 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $23.55 million.

The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -14.96% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $5.36 and $8.35 at the end of this 3-month period.

NVAX Signals & Forecast

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Novavax stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $7.46 and $8.64. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, May 27, 2026, and so far it has fallen -33.99%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Novavax stock

There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.275 between high and low, or 3.81%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.99%.

Novavax is oversold on RSI14 (15). Some stocks may fall long and hard while being oversold on RSI, but stocks that are heavily oversold on RSI often pose good re-bounce chance and played well it can be a buy candidate.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (NVAX) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 3rd

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 3rd we expect Novavax Inc to open at $7.34, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $7.12 and $7.52, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.401 (+/-5.63%) up or down from last closing price. If Novavax Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.63% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $8.88, some $1.56 (21.31%) from the current price of $7.32, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.

Is Novavax Inc stock A Buy?

Novavax holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Strong Sell candidate.

Current score: -5.898 Strong Sell Candidate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on August 3, 2026 - $7.34 ( 0.296%).

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