Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking ETF Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Nov 05, 2024 Gain 7.85%

The Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking ETF price gained 0.785% on the last trading day (Friday, 6th Dec 2024), rising from $77.72 to $78.33. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.698% from a day low at $77.84 to a day high of $78.38. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 4.75% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 22 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 234 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $18.33 million.

The ETF lies in the upper part of a strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $78.42 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 11.40% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $83.00 and $87.36 at the end of this 3-month period.

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ONEQ Signals & Forecast

Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $76.90 and $74.60. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, November 15, 2024, and so far it has risen 6.38%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking ETF

Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking finds support from accumulated volume at $75.96 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.543 between high and low, or 0.698%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.740%.

The Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETF may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: $74.84 (-4.45%) (This ETF has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. The RSI14 is 89 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 14 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (ONEQ) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 9th

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 9th we expect Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking Stock to open at $78.18, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $77.45 and $79.21, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.88 (+/-1.12%) up or down from last closing price. If Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking Stock takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.24% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ $75.96, some $2.37 (3.03%) from the current price of $78.33, our system finds the risk reward attractive.

Is Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking Stock ETF A Buy?

Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking holds several positive signals and is within a strong rising trend. As the old saying says, "Let the trend be your friend.'". We therefore consider it to be a good choice at these current levels and we are expecting further gains during the next 3 months. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Strong Buy candidate.

Current score: 5.863 Strong Buy Candidate Upgraded

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on December 9, 2024 - $78.18 ( 0.186%).