Paychex Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Paychex stock price ended at $118.45 on Thursday, after losing 0.80%.
(Updated on May 02, 2024)
The Paychex stock price fell by -0.80% on the last day (Thursday, 2nd May 2024) from $119.41 to $118.45. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.10% from a day low at $117.15 to a day high of $119.61. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.56% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 94 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $173.62 million.
The stock is at the lower part of a horizontal trend in the short term, and normally this may pose a good buying opportunity, though a breakdown through the bottom trend line at $117.45 will give a strong sell signal and a trend shift may be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Paychex stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $115.55 and $123.97 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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PAYX Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Paychex stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $120.28 and $121.31. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, April 24, 2024, and so far it has fallen -3.32%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Paychex stock
Paychex finds support from accumulated volume at $117.79 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $2.46 between high and low, or 2.10%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.81%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (PAYX) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 3rd
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 3rd we expect Paychex to open at $118.40, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $116.16 and $120.74, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$2.29 (+/-1.93%) up or down from last closing price. If Paychex takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.87% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $117.79 (0.56%) than the resistance at $120.28 (1.54%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Paychex stock A Buy?
Paychex holds several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.
Current score: -1.817 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Paychex of Friday, May 3, 2024
| Fair opening price May 3, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $118.40 ( 0.0394%) | $118.45 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for PAYX
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 120.86 | 2.04 % | |
| R2 | 119.92 | 1.24 % | ||
| R1 | 119.34 | 0.754 % | ||
| Current price: | 118.45 | |||
| Support | S1 | 117.46 | -0.83 % | |
| S2 | 116.88 | -1.32 % | ||
| S3 | 115.94 | -2.12 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 122.08 | 3.06 % | |
| R2 | 121.62 | 2.68 % | ||
| R1 | 120.28 | 1.54 % | ||
| Current price | 118.45 | |||
| Support | S1 | 117.79 | -0.557% | |
| S2 | 0 | . | ||
| S3 | 0 | . |
PAYX Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan 18, 2024 | Feb 12, 2024 | Feb 27, 2024 | $0.89 | 0.724% |
| 2 | Oct 12, 2023 | Nov 13, 2023 | Nov 28, 2023 | $0.89 | 0.744% |
| 3 | Jul 13, 2023 | Aug 09, 2023 | Aug 24, 2023 | $0.89 | 0.737% |
| 4 | Apr 28, 2023 | May 10, 2023 | May 25, 2023 | $0.89 | 0.82% |
| 5 | Jan 20, 2023 | Feb 08, 2023 | May 25, 2023 | $0.790 | 0.732% |
FAQ
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