Paychex Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jun 25, 2026 Gain 14.41%

The Paychex stock price fell by -0.0722% on the last day (Thursday, 23rd Jul 2026) from $110.74 to $110.66. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.23% from a day low at $109.38 to a day high of $111.82. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 4.14% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -5 thousand shares and in total, 3 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $363.35 million.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 22.21% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $126.15 and $142.06 at the end of this 3-month period.

PAYX Signals & Forecast

The Paychex stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $112.52. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $103.76. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, July 20, 2026, and so far it has fallen -3.94%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Paychex stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $100.28 and $98.24. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Paychex finds support just below today's level at $100.28. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $98.24 and $96.30.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $2.44 between high and low, or 2.23%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.93%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $104.97 (-5.14%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 3 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (PAYX) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 24th

For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 24th we expect Paychex to open at $110.62, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $108.99 and $112.33, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$3.33 (+/-3.06%) up or down from last closing price. If Paychex takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.06% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $110.74 (0.07%) than the support at $100.28 (9.38%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Dividend Warning For PAYX

Dividend warning for PAYX: Ex-dividend date is approaching in 4 days on Tuesday 28th July, 2026. The dividend to be paid is $1.19, which is a moderate dividend (1.08%). The stock is expected to open approximately 1.08% lower on the ex-dividend date.

Is Paychex stock A Buy?

Paychex holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold candidate.

Current score: 0.004 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 24, 2026 - $110.62 ( 0.0361%).

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