First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index ETF Forecast
First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index ETF upgraded to Strong Buy Candidate.
(Updated on Jul 02, 2024)
The First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index ETF price gained 1.10% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 2nd Jul 2024), rising from $198.23 to $200.41. It has now gained 6 days in a row. It is not often that ETFS manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.36% from a day low at $197.73 to a day high of $200.41. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.89% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -37 thousand shares and in total, 64 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $12.90 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF lies in the middle of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 8.18% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $201.72 and $222.28 at the end of this 3-month period.
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QTEC Signals & Forecast
Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $196.92 and $192.75. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 15.22%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index ETF
First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index finds support from accumulated volume at $196.61 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the ETF moved $2.68 (1.36%) between high and low. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.20%.
Since the First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index has been rising for 6 days in a row, the risk over the next couple of days has increased. We don't expect a major reaction as the ETF is in very good shape technically, and therefore hold a positive evaluation despite the very short term risk.
Our recommended stop-loss: $194.16 (-3.12%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 80 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (QTEC) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 3rd
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 3rd we expect First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index Fund to open at $199.52, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $197.71 and $203.11, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$2.70 (+/-1.35%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.69% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ $196.61, some $3.80 (1.90%) from the current price of $200.41, our system finds the risk reward attractive.
Is First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index Fund ETF A Buy?
First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index holds several positive signals and is within a weak rising trend. As the old saying says, "Let the trend be your friend.'". We therefore consider it to be a good choice at these current levels and we are expecting further gains during the next 3 months. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Strong Buy candidate.
Current score: 6.807 Strong Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index Fund of Wednesday, July 3, 2024
| Fair opening price July 3, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $199.52 ( 0.446%) | $200.41 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for QTEC
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 202.20 | 0.89% |
| R2 | 201.17 | 0.381% |
| R1 | 200.54 | 0.0651% |
| Price | 200.41 | |
| S1 | 198.49 | -0.96% |
| S2 | 197.86 | -1.27% |
| S3 | 196.84 | -1.78% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 0 | - |
| R2 | 0 | - |
| R1 | 0 | - |
| Price | 200.41 | |
| S1 | 196.61 | -1.90% |
| S2 | 186.02 | -7.18% |
| S3 | 183.27 | -8.55% |
QTEC Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $0.0084 | 0.0044% |
| 2 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.0312 | 0.0178% |
| 3 | Sep 21, 2023 | Sep 22, 2023 | Sep 29, 2023 | $0.0310 | 0.0213% |
| 4 | Jun 26, 2023 | Jun 27, 2023 | Jun 30, 2023 | $0.0590 | 0.0401% |
| 5 | Mar 23, 2023 | Mar 24, 2023 | Mar 31, 2023 | $0.117 | 0.0896% |
FAQ
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