SPDR(R) PORTFOLIO TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
SPDR(R) PORTFOLIO TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF upgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Buy Candidate after Thursday trading session.
(Updated on May 02, 2024)
The SPDR(R) PORTFOLIO TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF price gained 0.91% on the last trading day (Thursday, 2nd May 2024), rising from $61.29 to $61.85. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.26% from a day low at $61.23 to a day high of $62.00. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 1.11% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -194 thousand shares and in total, 364 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $22.51 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF is moving within a horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect SPDR(R) PORTFOLIO TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $61.82 and $65.59 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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SPTM Signals & Forecast
The SPDR(R) PORTFOLIO TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $61.86 and $62.72. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Some positive signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 1.91%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for SPDR(R) PORTFOLIO TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF
SPDR(R) PORTFOLIO TOTAL STOCK MARKET finds support from accumulated volume at $61.20 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.770 between high and low, or 1.26%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.15%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $58.63 (-5.20%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 9 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (SPTM) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 3rd
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 3rd we expect SPDR(R) PORTFOLIO TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF to open at $61.69, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $61.11 and $62.59, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.740 (+/-1.20%) up or down from last closing price. If SPDR(R) PORTFOLIO TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.39% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $61.99 (0.23%) than the support at $61.20 (1.05%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is SPDR(R) PORTFOLIO TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF ETF A Buy?
Several of the signals/indicators are negative, and we believe that this will affect on the development for the next days and maybe possible weeks. However, over time, we think that today's level holds a possible buying opportunity and that the price will be higher during or at the end of this 3-month period. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 2.860 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for SPDR(R) PORTFOLIO TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF of Friday, May 3, 2024
| Fair opening price May 3, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $61.69 ( 0.253%) | $61.85 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for SPTM
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 62.46 | 0.99 % | |
| R2 | 62.17 | 0.516 % | ||
| R1 | 61.99 | 0.222 % | ||
| Current price: | 61.85 | |||
| Support | S1 | 61.40 | -0.729 % | |
| S2 | 61.22 | -1.02 % | ||
| S3 | 60.92 | -1.50 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 63.06 | 1.96 % | |
| R2 | 62.08 | 0.372 % | ||
| R1 | 61.99 | 0.226 % | ||
| Current price | 61.85 | |||
| Support | S1 | 61.20 | -1.05% | |
| S2 | 60.93 | -1.49% | ||
| S3 | 60.69 | -1.88% |
SPTM Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 18, 2024 | Mar 18, 2024 | Mar 21, 2024 | $0.207 | 0.323% |
| 2 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | $0.231 | 0.398% |
| 3 | Jan 17, 2023 | Sep 18, 2023 | Sep 21, 2023 | $0.206 | 0.389% |
| 4 | Jan 17, 2023 | Jun 20, 2023 | Jun 23, 2023 | $0.213 | 0.401% |
| 5 | Jan 17, 2023 | Mar 20, 2023 | Mar 23, 2023 | $0.189 | 0.390% |
FAQ
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