Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index ETF downgraded from Buy Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Tuesday trading session.
(Updated on May 07, 2024)
The Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index ETF price fell by -0.554% on the last day (Tuesday, 7th May 2024) from $310.32 to $308.60. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.736% from a day low at $308.54 to a day high of $310.81. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.45% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -15 thousand shares and in total, 27 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $8.25 million.
The ETF lies in the middle of a falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -2.62% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $282.77 and $306.02 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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VCR Signals & Forecast
The Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock, but the ETF has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $305.53 and $306.75. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, May 06, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.554%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
A sell signal from a double top formation was found on Wednesday, March 27, 2024 and based on theory for this formation the price should fall by -3.76% to $297.00 within 18 trading days since signal was issued (Wednesday, May 08, 2024).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index ETF
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index finds support from accumulated volume at $299.54 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the ETF moved $2.27 (0.736%) between high and low. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.28%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $296.53 (-3.91%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)
Trading Expectations (VCR) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 8th
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 8th we expect Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF Shares to open at $309.32, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $303.99 and $313.21, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$4.61 (+/-1.49%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF Shares takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.99% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $311.21 (0.85%) than the support at $299.54 (2.94%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF Shares ETF A Buy?
Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.508 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF Shares of Wednesday, May 8, 2024
| Fair opening price May 8, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $309.32 ( 0.232%) | $308.60 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for VCR
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 311.59 | 0.97 % | |
| R2 | 310.72 | 0.687 % | ||
| R1 | 310.18 | 0.513 % | ||
| Current price: | 308.60 | |||
| Support | S1 | 308.45 | -0.0488 % | |
| S2 | 307.91 | -0.222 % | ||
| S3 | 307.05 | -0.503 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 317.39 | 2.85 % | |
| R2 | 315.74 | 2.31 % | ||
| R1 | 311.21 | 0.85 % | ||
| Current price | 308.60 | |||
| Support | S1 | 299.54 | -2.94% | |
| S2 | 295.93 | -4.11% | ||
| S3 | 292.03 | -5.37% |
VCR Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 04, 2024 | Mar 22, 2024 | Mar 27, 2024 | $0.639 | 0.201% |
| 2 | Dec 19, 2023 | Dec 19, 2023 | Dec 19, 2023 | $0.585 | 0.190% |
| 3 | Mar 15, 2023 | Sep 28, 2023 | Oct 03, 2023 | $0.721 | 0.275% |
| 4 | Mar 15, 2023 | Jun 29, 2023 | Jul 05, 2023 | $0.546 | 0.191% |
| 5 | Mar 15, 2023 | Mar 24, 2023 | Mar 29, 2023 | $0.695 | 0.284% |
FAQ
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