First Trust Low Duration Mortgage ETF Forecast
Red day on Thursday for First Trust Low Duration Mortgage
(Updated on Apr 25, 2024)
The First Trust Low Duration Mortgage ETF price fell by -0.126% on the last day (Thursday, 25th Apr 2024) from $47.64 to $47.58. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.168% from a day low at $47.52 to a day high of $47.60. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -0.34% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -42 thousand shares and in total, 306 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $14.57 million.
The ETF has broken the narrow and horizontal trend down. Breaks like this are often followed by swift and strong movements, and any correction down to the breakline at approximately $47.63 is considered to be a "second chance" to get out before further fall. It is, however, important to note that false breaks may appear and that the price may move back into the horizontal trend. A break on increasing volume is considered to be more significant and reliable than breaks on low volume.
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LMBS Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The First Trust Low Duration Mortgage ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $47.70 and $48.01. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, March 27, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.53%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust Low Duration Mortgage ETF
There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the ETF may perform very badly in the next couple of days.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.0800 between high and low, or 0.168%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.228%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (LMBS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 26th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 26th we expect First Trust Low Duration Mortgage Opportunities ETF to open at $47.57, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $47.42 and $47.74, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.161 (+/-0.34%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust Low Duration Mortgage Opportunities ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.68% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $48.06, some $0.480 (1.01%) from the current price of $47.58, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.
Is First Trust Low Duration Mortgage Opportunities ETF ETF A Buy?
First Trust Low Duration Mortgage holds several negative signals and is within a narrow and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.
Current score: -4.760 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for First Trust Low Duration Mortgage Opportunities ETF of Friday, April 26, 2024
| Fair opening price April 26, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $47.57 ( 0.0280%) | $47.58 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for LMBS
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 47.65 | 0.140 % | |
| R2 | 47.62 | 0.0759 % | ||
| R1 | 47.60 | 0.0362 % | ||
| Current price: | 47.58 | |||
| Support | S1 | 47.54 | -0.0923 % | |
| S2 | 47.52 | -0.132 % | ||
| S3 | 47.49 | -0.196 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 48.20 | 1.30 % | |
| R2 | 48.14 | 1.18 % | ||
| R1 | 48.06 | 1.01 % | ||
| Current price | 47.58 | |||
| Support | S1 | 0 | . | |
| S2 | 0 | . | ||
| S3 | 0 | . |
LMBS Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apr 22, 2024 | Apr 23, 2024 | Apr 30, 2024 | $0.175 | 0.368% |
| 2 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $0.175 | 0.363% |
| 3 | Feb 20, 2024 | Feb 21, 2024 | Feb 29, 2024 | $0.185 | 0.385% |
| 4 | Jan 22, 2024 | Jan 23, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | $0.185 | 0.382% |
| 5 | Dec 21, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.200 | 0.414% |
FAQ
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