Alibaba Stock Forecast
Evaluation of Alibaba stock downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Apr 25, 2024)
The Alibaba stock price gained 0.643% on the last trading day (Thursday, 25th Apr 2024), rising from $74.63 to $75.11. It has now gained 6 days in a row. It is not often that stocks manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.89% from a day low at $73.81 to a day high of $75.20. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.35% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -4 million shares and in total, 12 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $874.52 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies the upper part of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $76.11 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -3.04% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $66.50 and $73.80 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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BABA Signals & Forecast
The Alibaba stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock, but the stock has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $71.39 and $72.62. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, April 17, 2024, and so far it has risen 9.14%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alibaba stock
Alibaba finds support from accumulated volume at $74.63 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $1.40 (1.89%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.95%.
Since the Alibaba has been rising for 6 days in a row, the risk over the next couple of days has increased. As we cannot be certain with regards to the size of the reaction, we urge caution.
Our recommended stop-loss: $72.65 (-3.28%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 6 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (BABA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 26th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 26th we expect Alibaba Group Holding Limited to open at $74.71, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $73.58 and $76.64, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.53 (+/-2.04%) up or down from last closing price. If Alibaba Group Holding Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.08% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $75.58 (0.63%) than the support at $74.63 (0.64%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock A Buy?
Alibaba holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.658 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Alibaba Group Holding Limited of Friday, April 26, 2024
| Fair opening price April 26, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $74.71 ( 0.539%) | $75.11 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for BABA
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 76.10 | 1.32 % | |
| R2 | 75.57 | 0.609 % | ||
| R1 | 75.24 | 0.170 % | ||
| Current price: | 75.11 | |||
| Support | S1 | 74.17 | -1.25 % | |
| S2 | 73.84 | -1.69 % | ||
| S3 | 73.31 | -2.40 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 78.23 | 4.15 % | |
| R2 | 76.39 | 1.70 % | ||
| R1 | 75.58 | 0.626 % | ||
| Current price | 75.11 | |||
| Support | S1 | 74.63 | -0.639% | |
| S2 | 74.59 | -0.692% | ||
| S3 | 73.64 | -1.96% |
BABA Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nov 16, 2023 | Dec 20, 2023 | Jan 18, 2024 | $1.00 | 1.47% |
FAQ
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