Powell Speaks, Walmart Reports: 2 Big Reasons Markets Could Get Volatile This Week

Expect a busy week. The headline item is Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, but there's more: retail earnings from some of the country's biggest sellers, housing data, FOMC minutes, and weekly jobless claims. Markets will be parsing each data point for hints about the next move in rates - and whether the recent rally has legs.

Powell and Jackson Hole

Powell takes center stage Friday at Jackson Hole. Traders will be listening for any shift in tone about the timing of rate cuts - the Fed hasn't trimmed rates since last December, even as inflation has ticked up and labor-market indicators have cooled versus earlier expectations.

The July FOMC minutes earlier in the week will add texture, showing how Fed officials viewed the economy and flagging the split vote by two members who favored a cut last month.

Retail earnings - tariffs and pricing on the menu:

Big-box and home-improvement chains report results this week.

Walmart (NYSE: WMT) is scheduled for Thursday; the company previously said it would lean on price increases to help offset higher import costs. Home Depot (NYSE: HD) reports Tuesday and has been signaling efforts to hold price points steady. Target (NYSE: TGT) follows midweek after earlier warnings of softer sales, and Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) and Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) are also on the calendar. These reports will be watched for signs that tariffs - and companies' responses to them - are showing up in margins and same-store sales.

Economic datapoints to keep an eye on

The flow of housing reports ramps up: homebuilder confidence on Monday, housing starts on Tuesday, and existing-home sales on Thursday.

Weekly initial jobless claims come out midweek, alongside the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, S&P Flash U.S. PMI, and the Conference Board's leading economic indicators for July. Any surprises in these numbers could change the odds markets place on a September rate cut.

This week's schedule (highlights)

Stocks to watch this week:

Udemy (NASDAQ: UDMY), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), Gates Industrial (NYSE: GTES).

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Powell's words on Friday will likely set the tone, but the retail reports and housing prints could rearrange expectations before he finishes his first sentence. Which headline moves markets most? That's the $64,000 question this week.