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CF Industries Earnings Calls
| Release date | Nov 05, 2025 |
| EPS estimate | $2.06 |
| EPS actual | $2.19 |
| EPS Surprise | 6.31% |
| Revenue estimate | 1.793B |
| Revenue actual | 1.659B |
| Revenue Surprise | -7.49% |
| Release date | Aug 06, 2025 |
| EPS estimate | $2.50 |
| EPS actual | $2.37 |
| EPS Surprise | -5.20% |
| Revenue estimate | 1.804B |
| Revenue actual | 1.89B |
| Revenue Surprise | 4.78% |
| Release date | May 07, 2025 |
| EPS estimate | $1.48 |
| EPS actual | $1.85 |
| EPS Surprise | 25.00% |
| Revenue estimate | 1.541B |
| Revenue actual | 1.663B |
| Revenue Surprise | 7.91% |
| Release date | Feb 19, 2025 |
| EPS estimate | $1.54 |
| EPS actual | $1.89 |
| EPS Surprise | 22.73% |
| Revenue estimate | 1.502B |
| Revenue actual | 1.524B |
| Revenue Surprise | 1.48% |
Last 4 Quarters for CF Industries
Below you can see how CF performed 4 days prior and 4 days after releasing the earnings report. Also, you can see the pre-estimates and the actual earnings. This information can give you a slight idea of what you might expect for the next quarter's release.
| Release date | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Price on release | $83.81 |
| EPS estimate | $1.54 |
| EPS actual | $1.89 |
| EPS surprise | 22.73% |
| Date | Price |
|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2025 | $81.18 |
| Feb 13, 2025 | $81.46 |
| Feb 14, 2025 | $82.48 |
| Feb 18, 2025 | $83.22 |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $83.81 |
| Feb 20, 2025 | $80.26 |
| Feb 21, 2025 | $77.90 |
| Feb 24, 2025 | $77.51 |
| Feb 25, 2025 | $78.41 |
| 4 days before | 3.24% |
| 4 days after | -6.44% |
| On release day | -4.24% |
| Change in period | -3.41% |
| Release date | May 07, 2025 |
| Price on release | $80.69 |
| EPS estimate | $1.48 |
| EPS actual | $1.85 |
| EPS surprise | 25.00% |
| Date | Price |
|---|---|
| May 01, 2025 | $79.62 |
| May 02, 2025 | $80.60 |
| May 05, 2025 | $80.92 |
| May 06, 2025 | $81.98 |
| May 07, 2025 | $80.69 |
| May 08, 2025 | $81.32 |
| May 09, 2025 | $82.41 |
| May 12, 2025 | $84.39 |
| May 13, 2025 | $87.73 |
| 4 days before | 1.34% |
| 4 days after | 8.72% |
| On release day | 0.781% |
| Change in period | 10.19% |
| Release date | Aug 06, 2025 |
| Price on release | $89.90 |
| EPS estimate | $2.50 |
| EPS actual | $2.37 |
| EPS surprise | -5.20% |
| Date | Price |
|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2025 | $92.83 |
| Aug 01, 2025 | $91.56 |
| Aug 04, 2025 | $93.65 |
| Aug 05, 2025 | $92.72 |
| Aug 06, 2025 | $89.90 |
| Aug 07, 2025 | $82.89 |
| Aug 08, 2025 | $80.91 |
| Aug 11, 2025 | $82.63 |
| Aug 12, 2025 | $82.90 |
| 4 days before | -3.16% |
| 4 days after | -7.79% |
| On release day | -7.80% |
| Change in period | -10.70% |
| Release date | Nov 05, 2025 |
| Price on release | $85.05 |
| EPS estimate | $2.06 |
| EPS actual | $2.19 |
| EPS surprise | 6.31% |
| Date | Price |
|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | $82.81 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | $83.29 |
| Nov 03, 2025 | $84.41 |
| Nov 04, 2025 | $84.55 |
| Nov 05, 2025 | $85.05 |
| Nov 06, 2025 | $81.45 |
| Nov 07, 2025 | $82.03 |
| Nov 10, 2025 | $82.81 |
| Nov 11, 2025 | $83.68 |
| 4 days before | 2.70% |
| 4 days after | -1.61% |
| On release day | -4.23% |
| Change in period | 1.05% |
CF Industries Earnings Call Transcript Summary of Q3 2025
CF Industries reported strong results for Q3 and the first nine months of 2025 with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.1 billion and trailing 12-month free cash flow of $1.7 billion (65% conversion of adjusted EBITDA). Operationally the manufacturing network ran well (97% ammonia utilization YTD) and the company still expects ~10 million tons gross ammonia production for the full year. Strategic low‑carbon initiatives are now producing both environmental and financial returns: they claim a ~25% reduction in GHG intensity vs. baseline, monetization of carbon credits, 45Q tax credits from Donaldsonville CCS (~$100M/year cash benefit at full rate), and N2O abatement and other projects that are highly NPV‑positive. The Blue Point ultra‑low emissions ammonia project (joint venture with JERA and Mitsui) is progressing through detailed engineering and permitting with site construction expected in 2026; CF has procured long‑lead equipment and remains confident in project economics and modular construction strategy. CF continues aggressive capital return activity: completed prior buyback (37.6M shares repurchased under 2022 authorization), executing a new $2B repurchase program, returned $445M in Q3 and $1.3B YTD. Management highlights a perceived market valuation disconnect (CF trading at historically low free cash flow multiples) and reiterates focus on continuing buybacks while funding growth. Market outlook: global nitrogen supply-demand remains tight (low inventories, outages, delayed start-ups); demand drivers include North America, India and Brazil. Management expects constructive conditions into 2026 with upside from low‑carbon product premiums (current low‑carbon ammonia premium ~$20–$25/ton) and ratable cash flows from CCS and abatement projects (management estimates ~$150–$200M incremental annual free cash flow from these projects by decade end). CEO Tony Will announced his retirement (last earnings call) and Chris Bohn was named CEO; leadership transition is framed as orderly with the incoming CEO having deep company experience.
