Graphic Packaging Holding Company Stock Earnings Reports

Graphic Packaging reported Q3 2025 sales of $2.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $383 million (17.5% margin) and adjusted EPS of $0.58. Management emphasized operational execution despite soft consumer grocery volumes (packaging volumes down ~2% YoY ex-FX), continued innovation-driven outperformance (+~2% from innovation), and inventory reduction. The big corporate development is the early commercial production at the Waco recycled paperboard mill (first saleable board Oct 24), which management says will provide durable cost and quality advantage and enable mill closures (East Angus; Middletown already closed). Waco ramp is expected to take 12–18 months; management reiterated confidence in an $80 million EBITDA uplift in 2026 from the Waco ramp (and another $80 million thereafter), while one-time start-up costs of $65–75 million are being phased (~2/3 in 2025, 1/3 in 2026). Management signaled unusual competitive pressure from bleached board sellers discounting into recycled board price levels, putting pressure on margins but not on share for Graphic Packaging. Capital allocation: ~$150 million of repurchases YTD in 2025 (~6.8 million shares), total ~24% repurchased since 2018; a $400 million delayed-draw loan was completed in Oct to address an April 2026 bond maturity. With Waco effectively complete, CapEx is expected to normalize to ~5% of sales (~$450 million in 2026 vs ~$850 million in 2025), and management reiterated a target of $700–800 million of free cash flow in 2026 and a focus on deleveraging and shareholder returns. Leadership: CFO Steve Scherger departed; Chuck Lischer named Interim CFO. Guidance was modestly revised to reflect current visibility and the uncertain volume outlook; management will prioritize cost, SG&A reductions, inventory optimization and matching production to demand (cited a Q4 production decision with ~ $15M EBITDA impact).