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At Close: Jun 03, 2026

COVID-19 Debt: Impact And Consequences

01:03pm, Friday, 28'th Aug 2020
The stock market continues to rip higher. The higher it goes the more overvalued it gets.
Q2 corporate profits from the National Income & Product Accounts showed a major decline as expected. Both pre-tax and after-tax profits sank as the effective tax rate nudged higher.

Deviations Vs. Shortfalls

10:47am, Friday, 28'th Aug 2020
The Fed's new framework, as described by Chairman Powell, mentions shortfalls (particularly in employment) instead of deviations of the natural rate.
The good news in the latest jobless claims report is that the trend of less worse news continues. The bad news is that the improvement has slowed to a snail's pace, at levels worse than the worst leve

3 Things I Think I Think - Lumbering Along

09:01am, Friday, 28'th Aug 2020
Lumber prices have tripled since the March bottom. It’s one of the most interesting economic developments since the pandemic started.

Value Stocks Need A Whiff Of Inflation

07:21am, Friday, 28'th Aug 2020
The Street is so sobered by 2020's headlines that it is looking at out-year 2025 dividends that are lower than the amounts witnessed last year.
Why the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. Can equity markets continue to rise? Could a Biden White House spoil the equities party?.
Long leading indicators generally turn down at least one year before the economy as a whole. There are 8 such metrics with good historical records.

Sentiment Is Shifting In The Markets: Thornton

10:54pm, Thursday, 27'th Aug 2020
Markets have been frothy as sentiment continues to heavily skew price action, but change is in the air.
A truer picture of the employment situation is extracted from the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims (UIWC) report.
Volatility appears likely to rise in September, possibly weighing on stocks. Low Treasury yields continue to suggest widespread caution.

The Coming Inflation - Don't Worry But Do Think

12:19pm, Thursday, 27'th Aug 2020
There is a significant amount of potential inflation built into the current economy. This isn't something to worry about, not as yet, but it is worth thinking about it.
Capital markets have rebounded from their COVID-19-induced lows, but impacted industries have lagged substantially.

World Markets Update: August 25, 2020

09:43am, Thursday, 27'th Aug 2020
Six of eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through August 25, 2020. The top performer is China's Shanghai with a gain of 10.60%.
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