Evaluation of Alarm.com Holdings stock downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on September 28, 2021)

The Alarm.com Holdings stock price fell by -3.48% on the last day (Tuesday, 28th Sep 2021) from $82.51 to $79.64. During the day the stock fluctuated 2.93% from a day low at $79.39 to a day high of $81.71. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -0.98% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 95 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 220 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $17.52 million.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -4.42% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $71.96 and $84.07 at the end of this 3-month period.

Signals & Forecast

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Alarm.com Holdings stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $80.83 and $81.94. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, September 02, 2021, and so far it has fallen -6.62%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss

Alarm.com Holdings finds support from accumulated volume at $79.50 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $2.32 (2.93%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 2.40%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold an negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Is Alarm.com Holdings stock A Buy?

Alarm.com Holdings holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.

Current score: -2.866

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