Alarm.com Holdings Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jun 26, 2026 Gain 22.27%

The Alarm.com Holdings stock price gained 1.41% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 5th Aug 2026), rising from $55.87 to $56.66. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.51% from a day low at $55.35 to a day high of $56.74. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 12.11% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 55 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 417 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $23.60 million.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 26.78% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $62.37 and $75.86 at the end of this 3-month period.

ALRM Signals & Forecast

The Alarm.com Holdings stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $55.32 and $50.46. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, July 23, 2026, and so far it has risen 12.20%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alarm.com Holdings stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $46.34 and $44.99. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Alarm.com Holdings finds support just below today's level at $46.34. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $44.99 and $44.38.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $1.39 between high and low, or 2.51%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.38%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $54.51 (-3.80%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 9 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (ALRM) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 6th

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 6th we expect Alarm.com Holdings to open at $56.25, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $55.85 and $57.47, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.61 (+/-2.89%) up or down from last closing price. If Alarm.com Holdings takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.89% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ $46.34, some $10.32 (18.21%) from the current price of $56.66, our system finds the risk reward attractive.

Is Alarm.com Holdings stock A Buy?

Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Alarm.com Holdings stock to perform well in the short-term. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Buy candidate.

Current score: 4.603 Buy Candidate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on August 6, 2026 - $56.25 ( 0.724%).

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