Alarm.com Holdings Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since May 29, 2026 Gain 0.58%

The Alarm.com Holdings stock price gained 0.84% on the last trading day (Friday, 5th Jun 2026), rising from $44.99 to $45.37. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.80% from a day low at $44.97 to a day high of $45.78. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.77% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -250 thousand shares and in total, 398 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $18.07 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -3.76% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $39.43 and $45.28 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

ALRM Signals & Forecast

Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The Alarm.com Holdings stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $45.19 and $44.83. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, and so far it has risen 7.69%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alarm.com Holdings stock

Alarm.com Holdings finds support from accumulated volume at $44.99 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.81 between high and low, or 1.80%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.08%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $43.29 (-4.58%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 17 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (ALRM) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 8th

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 8th we expect Alarm.com Holdings to open at $45.37, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $44.65 and $46.09, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.44 (+/-3.21%) up or down from last closing price. If Alarm.com Holdings takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.21% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $44.99 (0.84%) than the resistance at $45.77 (0.88%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Alarm.com Holdings stock A Buy?

Several short-term signals are positive, despite the stock being in a falling trend, we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold to a Buy candidate.

Current score: 1.363 Buy Candidate Upgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on June 8, 2026 - $45.37 ( 0.0073%).

Want to trade but not sure how? Our step-by-step guide can help.
Skip the guide? Open account with our trusted broker*
*Your capital is at risk