Alarm.com Holdings stock downgraded to Sell Candidate
(Updated on Sep 30, 2022)

Sell candidate since 2022-09-30 PDF

The Alarm.com Holdings stock price fell by -0.0924% on the last day (Friday, 30th Sep 2022) from $64.92 to $64.86. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.91% from a day low at $64.58 to a day high of $66.46. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -2.92% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 76 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 253 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $16.39 million.

The stock is at the lower part of a wide and horizontal trend in the short term, and normally this may pose a good buying opportunity, though a breakdown through the bottom trend line at $63.56 will give a strong sell signal and a trend shift may be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Alarm.com Holdings stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $63.34 and $76.39 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

Signals & Forecast

There are mixed signals in the stock today. The Alarm.com Holdings stock holds a buy signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term moving average at $68.72. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $64.49. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, September 23, 2022, and so far it has risen 2.01%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss

Alarm.com Holdings finds support from accumulated volume at $64.54 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $1.88 between high and low, or 2.91%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.80%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 3rd

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 3rd we expect Alarm.com Holdings to open at $65.30, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $62.88 and $66.84, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.98 (+/-3.05%) up or down from last closing price. If Alarm.com Holdings takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.11% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $65.09 (0.35%) than the support at $64.54 (0.49%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Alarm.com Holdings stock A Buy?

Alarm.com Holdings holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.

Current score: -1.181

Sell Candidate Downgraded

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