Alarm.com Holdings Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Jul 15, 2025

The Alarm.com Holdings stock price fell by -1.14% on the last day (Tuesday, 15th Jul 2025) from $54.60 to $53.98. It has now fallen 4 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.97% from a day low at $53.92 to a day high of $54.98. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -4.58% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -20 thousand shares and in total, 229 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $12.38 million.

The stock lies in the lower part of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $53.33 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 6.94% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $57.03 and $67.98 at the end of this 3-month period.

ALRM Signals & Forecast

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Alarm.com Holdings stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $55.83 and $57.11. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, May 13, 2025, and so far it has fallen -11.04%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alarm.com Holdings stock

Alarm.com Holdings finds support from accumulated volume at $53.38 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $1.06 between high and low, or 1.97%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.75%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (ALRM) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 16th

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 16th we expect Alarm.com Holdings to open at $54.29, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $53.40 and $54.56, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.15 (+/-2.16%) up or down from last closing price. If Alarm.com Holdings takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.16% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $53.38 (1.11%) than the resistance at $56.40 (4.48%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Alarm.com Holdings stock A Buy?

The Alarm.com Holdings stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe Alarm.com Holdings will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.

Current score: -2.165 Sell Candidate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 16, 2025 - $54.29 ( 0.580%).

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