Alarm.com Holdings Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Nov 10, 2025 Loss -4.44%

The Alarm.com Holdings stock price fell by -4.14% on the last day (Monday, 17th Nov 2025) from $50.30 to $48.22. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.90% from a day low at $47.94 to a day high of $49.81. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.73% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 39 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 315 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $15.19 million.

The stock lies in the middle of a falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -17.08% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $38.14 and $41.58 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

ALRM Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, November 06, 2025, and so far it has risen 2.31%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Alarm.com Holdings stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $50.00 and $50.48. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alarm.com Holdings stock

Alarm.com Holdings finds support from accumulated volume at $47.69 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $1.87 between high and low, or 3.90%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.69%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (ALRM) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect Alarm.com Holdings to open at $48.66, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $47.52 and $48.92, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.40 (+/-2.95%) up or down from last closing price. If Alarm.com Holdings takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.95% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $47.69 (1.10%) than the resistance at $52.51 (8.90%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Alarm.com Holdings stock A Buy?

Alarm.com Holdings holds several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Current score: -2.422 Sell Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on November 18, 2025 - $48.66 ( 0.91%).

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