Alibaba Group Holding Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Jun 11, 2026 Loss -15.91%

The Alibaba Group Holding Ltd stock price gained 0.175% on the last trading day (Thursday, 2nd Jul 2026), rising from $12.85 to $12.88. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 15.05% from a day low at $11.63 to a day high of $13.38. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -3.16% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 43 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 46 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $594.22 thousand.

The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -17.23% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $9.65 and $14.27 at the end of this 3-month period.

BABAF Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, June 26, 2026, and so far it has risen 8.19%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd has increased volume and follows the last lift in the price. This is considered to be a technical positive sign as volume should follow the price-formation. Higher liquidity also reduces the general risk. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Alibaba Group Holding Ltd stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $15.20. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $12.50. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd stock

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd finds support from accumulated volume at $12.85 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $1.75 between high and low, or 15.05%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 14.30%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (BABAF) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 6th

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 6th we expect Alibaba Group Holding Ltd to open at $12.63, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $12.12 and $13.63, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.51 (+/-12.46%) up or down from last closing price. If Alibaba Group Holding Ltd takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 12.46% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $12.85 (0.17%) than the resistance at $13.75 (6.80%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd stock A Buy?

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Current score: -2.571 Sell Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 6, 2026 - $12.63 ( 1.94%).

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