CF Industries Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
CF Industries stock downgraded to Sell Candidate
(Updated on Apr 30, 2024)
The CF Industries stock price fell by -2.30% on the last day (Tuesday, 30th Apr 2024) from $80.83 to $78.97. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.59% from a day low at $78.84 to a day high of $80.88. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 1.57% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 530 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $136.13 million.
The stock lies in the lower part of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $78.30 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 4.05% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $81.47 and $91.45 at the end of this 3-month period.
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CF Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, April 16, 2024, and so far it has risen 1.57%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The CF Industries stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $79.48 and $81.89. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for CF Industries stock
CF Industries finds support from accumulated volume at $78.10 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $2.04 between high and low, or 2.59%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.01%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (CF) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 1st we expect CF Industries Holdings Inc to open at $79.56, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $77.10 and $80.84, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.87 (+/-2.36%) up or down from last closing price. If CF Industries Holdings Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.73% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $79.59 (0.79%) than the support at $78.10 (1.10%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
CF Industries will release earnings AMC on Wednesday, May 01, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $1.47. We will update the financials statements for CF Industries, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 3.46% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is CF Industries Holdings Inc stock A Buy?
The CF Industries stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe CF Industries will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -3.629 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for CF Industries Holdings Inc of Wednesday, May 1, 2024
| Fair opening price May 1, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $79.56 ( 0.751%) | $78.97 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for CF
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 81.60 | 3.33 % | |
| R2 | 80.82 | 2.35 % | ||
| R1 | 80.34 | 1.74 % | ||
| Current price: | 78.97 | |||
| Support | S1 | 78.78 | -0.235 % | |
| S2 | 78.30 | -0.85 % | ||
| S3 | 77.52 | -1.83 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 83.21 | 5.37 % | |
| R2 | 79.79 | 1.04 % | ||
| R1 | 79.59 | 0.785 % | ||
| Current price | 78.97 | |||
| Support | S1 | 78.10 | -1.10% | |
| S2 | 77.70 | -1.61% | ||
| S3 | 76.80 | -2.75% |
CF Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May 14, 2024 | May 14, 2024 | May 31, 2024 | $0.500 | 0.633% |
| 2 | Feb 14, 2024 | Feb 14, 2024 | Feb 29, 2024 | $0.500 | 0.619% |
| 3 | Oct 17, 2023 | Nov 14, 2023 | Nov 30, 2023 | $0.400 | 0.532% |
| 4 | Jul 06, 2023 | Aug 14, 2023 | Aug 31, 2023 | $0.400 | 0.519% |
| 5 | May 03, 2023 | May 12, 2023 | May 31, 2023 | $0.400 | 0.650% |
FAQ
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