China Merchants Bank . Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Nov 04, 2025 Gain 1.61%

The China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. stock price fell by -1.56% on the last day (Monday, 17th Nov 2025) from $33.40 to $32.88. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 0.794% from a day low at $32.75 to a day high of $33.01. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.23% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 3 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 4 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $144.28 thousand.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 7.24% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $31.82 and $36.18 at the end of this 3-month period.

CIHKY Signals & Forecast

The China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $33.31. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $31.56. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, and so far it has fallen -2.23%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs".

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. stock

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. finds support from accumulated volume at $32.36 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $0.260 (0.794%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.26%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $31.70 (-3.58%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 3 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (CIHKY) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. to open at $32.88, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $32.56 and $33.20, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.632 (+/-1.94%) up or down from last closing price. If China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.94% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $33.18 (0.91%) than the support at $32.36 (1.58%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. stock A Buy?

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold candidate.

Current score: -0.321 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on November 18, 2025 - $32.88 ( 0.00000000000002%).

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