Fastenal Company Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Sep 09, 2024 Gain 20.66%

The Fastenal Company stock price fell by -0.785% on the last day (Wednesday, 4th Dec 2024) from $82.81 to $82.16. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.01% from a day low at $81.92 to a day high of $82.75. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.7% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 221 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $188.74 million.

The stock lies in the lower part of a strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $80.83 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 25.34% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $101.32 and $111.45 at the end of this 3-month period.

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FAST Signals & Forecast

The Fastenal Company stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $83.25. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $80.54. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, November 11, 2024, and so far it has fallen -2.60%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Fastenal Company stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $77.77 and $76.82. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Fastenal Company finds support just below today's level at $77.77. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $76.82 and $76.69.

In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.83 between high and low, or 1.01%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.22%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $79.34 (-3.43%) (This stock has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 16 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (FAST) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 5th

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 5th we expect Fastenal Company to open at $82.28, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $80.90 and $83.42, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.26 (+/-1.53%) up or down from last closing price. If Fastenal Company takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.07% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $83.33 (1.42%) than the support at $77.77 (5.34%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Fastenal Company stock A Buy?

Fastenal Company holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Current score: -0.051 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on December 5, 2024 - $82.28 ( 0.142%).