FIRST TRUST NASDAQ OIL & GAS ETF Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jan 06, 2025 Gain 7.05%

The FIRST TRUST NASDAQ OIL & GAS ETF price gained 1.49% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 15th Jan 2025), rising from $30.90 to $31.36. It has now gained 6 days in a row. It is not often that ETF manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.00% from a day low at $31.07 to a day high of $31.38. The price has risen in 9 of the last 10 days and is up by 10.54% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -39 thousand shares and in total, 70 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $2.18 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The ETF lies the upper part of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $31.88 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -2.67% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $26.52 and $31.03 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the ETF price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

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FTXN Signals & Forecast

Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The FIRST TRUST NASDAQ OIL & GAS ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $30.15 and $29.81. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, December 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 14.12%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for FIRST TRUST NASDAQ OIL & GAS ETF

FIRST TRUST NASDAQ OIL & GAS finds support from accumulated volume at $31.31 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.311 between high and low, or 1.00%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.57%.

The FIRST TRUST NASDAQ OIL & GAS ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETF may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs. Since the FIRST TRUST NASDAQ OIL & GAS has been rising for 6 days in a row, the risk over the next couple of days has increased. We don't expect a major reaction as the ETF is in very good shape technically, and therefore hold a positive evaluation despite the very short term risk.

Our recommended stop-loss: $30.27 (-3.49%) (This ETF has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 94 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 16 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (FTXN) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 16th

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 16th we expect FIRST TRUST NASDAQ OIL & GAS ETF to open at $31.27, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $30.88 and $31.84, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.483 (+/-1.54%) up or down from last closing price. If FIRST TRUST NASDAQ OIL & GAS ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.08% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $31.39 (0.10%) than the support at $31.31 (0.16%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is FIRST TRUST NASDAQ OIL & GAS ETF ETF A Buy?

Several short-term signals are positive, despite the ETF being in a falling trend, we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for ETF to perform well in the short-term.

Current score: 3.353 Buy Candidate Unchanged

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on January 16, 2025 - $31.27 ( 0.288%).