Hovnanian Enterprises Inc Stock Forecast
Weaker technical forecast for Hovnanian Enterprises Inc as stock downgraded to Hold/Accumulate.
(Updated on May 06, 2024)
The Hovnanian Enterprises Inc stock price gained 3.48% on the last trading day (Monday, 6th May 2024), rising from $157.82 to $163.32. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.87% from a day low at $159.50 to a day high of $164.07. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 17.6% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -15 thousand shares and in total, 53 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $8.73 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stockhas broken the very wide and falling short-term trend up. Firstly a slower falling rate is indicated, but this may very well be an early signal of a trend shift. On the reaction, there will be support on the roof of the current trend broken, which is $157.71, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory $189.99 will be the next possible trend-top level and thereby pose a resistance level that may not be broken at the first attempt.
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HOV Signals & Forecast
The Hovnanian Enterprises Inc stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $153.47 and $146.56. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, April 17, 2024, and so far it has risen 27.10%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.
A sell signal from a double top formation was found on Thursday, February 15, 2024 and based on theory for this formation the price should fall by -7.28% to $151.42 within 3 trading days since signal was issued (Tuesday, May 07, 2024).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Hovnanian Enterprises Inc stock
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc finds support from accumulated volume at $156.94 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $4.57 between high and low, or 2.87%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 4.19%.
The Hovnanian Enterprises Inc stock is extremely overbought on RSI14 (78). Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but since the stock has broken the trend up, the chance for a major correction due to high RSI is very small as the stock will find support at the trend broken.
Our recommended stop-loss: $158.52 (-2.94%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 78 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 13 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (HOV) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 7th
For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 7th we expect Hovnanian Enterprises Inc to open at $162.30, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $155.61 and $171.03, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$7.71 (+/-4.72%) up or down from last closing price. If Hovnanian Enterprises Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 9.44% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $164.00 (0.42%) than the support at $156.94 (3.91%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Hovnanian Enterprises Inc stock A Buy?
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.000 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Zero in score indicates that our system is expecting high volatility and risk for the following trading day. Given the latest developments, we cannot determine the next direction as it may go both ways.
Predicted Opening Price for Hovnanian Enterprises Inc of Tuesday, May 7, 2024
| Fair opening price May 7, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $162.30 ( 0.627%) | $163.32 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for HOV
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 166.87 | 2.17 % | |
| R2 | 165.12 | 1.10 % | ||
| R1 | 164.04 | 0.442 % | ||
| Current price: | 163.32 | |||
| Support | S1 | 160.55 | -1.70 % | |
| S2 | 159.47 | -2.36 % | ||
| S3 | 157.73 | -3.42 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 168.53 | 3.19 % | |
| R2 | 164.14 | 0.502 % | ||
| R1 | 164.00 | 0.416 % | ||
| Current price | 163.32 | |||
| Support | S1 | 156.94 | -3.91% | |
| S2 | 145.31 | -11.03% | ||
| S3 | 134.05 | -17.92% |
FAQ
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