Ultrapar Participacoes Sa Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jul 07, 2026 Gain 15.78%

The Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock price gained 0.478% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 28th Jul 2026), rising from $6.28 to $6.31. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.27% from a day low at $6.28 to a day high of $6.36. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 6.23% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -3 million shares and in total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $11.13 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The stock lies in the upper part of a very wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $6.57 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 2.90% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $4.91 and $6.76 at the end of this 3-month period.

UGP Signals & Forecast

The Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $6.37. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $5.47. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, July 23, 2026, and so far it has fallen -3.81%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock

Ultrapar Participacoes SA finds support from accumulated volume at $6.00 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.0800 between high and low, or 1.27%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.94%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $6.04 (-4.32%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 3 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (UGP) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 29th

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 29th we expect Ultrapar Participacoes SA to open at $6.32, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $6.23 and $6.39, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.166 (+/-2.66%) up or down from last closing price. If Ultrapar Participacoes SA takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.66% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $6.43 (1.90%) than the support at $6.00 (4.91%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock A Buy?

Ultrapar Participacoes SA holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.

Current score: -0.435 Hold/Accumulate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 29, 2026 - $6.32 ( 0.106%).

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