Ultrapar Participacoes Sa Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jul 07, 2026 Gain 4.04%

The Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock price gained 4.04% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 8th Jul 2026), rising from $5.45 to $5.67. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.87% from a day low at $5.58 to a day high of $5.74. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 14.78% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 2 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 5 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $30.49 million.

Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -18.96% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $3.55 and $4.59 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

UGP Signals & Forecast

The Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $5.24 and $5.13. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, and so far it has risen 20.90%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $4.90 and $4.86. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Ultrapar Participacoes SA finds support just below today's level at $4.90. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $4.86 and $4.80.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.160 between high and low, or 2.87%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.80%.

The Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: $5.49 (-3.26%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 87 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 14 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (UGP) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 9th

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 9th we expect Ultrapar Participacoes SA to open at $5.66, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $5.59 and $5.75, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.169 (+/-3.03%) up or down from last closing price. If Ultrapar Participacoes SA takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.03% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $5.79 (2.12%) than the support at $4.90 (13.58%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock A Buy?

Ultrapar Participacoes SA holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold candidate.

Current score: 0.000 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Zero in score indicates that our system is expecting high volatility and risk for the following trading day. Given the latest developments, we cannot determine the next direction as it may go both ways.

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 9, 2026 - $5.66 ( 0.176%).

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