AMERISAFE Forecast and Stock Analysis
Technical AMSF stock analysis for February 15, 2019.
AMERISAFE gained 0.90% in the last trading day, rising from $63.59 to $64.16 , and has now gained 8 days in a row. It is not often that stocks manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. The price has risen in 9 of the last 10 days and is up by 8.51% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased in the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 2 922 more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 115 568 shares bought and sold for approximately $7.41 million.
Close price at the end of the last trading day (Friday, 15th Feb 2019) of the AMSF stock was $64.16. This is 0.9% more than the trading day before Thursday, 14th Feb 2019.
During day the stock fluctuated 1.83% from a day low at $63.93 to a day high of $65.10.
30 day high of the AMSF stock price was $65.10 and low was $53.43.
90 day high was $65.21 and low was $50.45.
52 week high for the AMERISAFE - $67.96 and low - $50.45.
AMERISAFE has broken the wide and falling short-term trend up. Firstly a slower falling rate is indicated, but this may very well be an early signal of a trend shift. On the reaction there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is $60.22, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory $68.10 will be the next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistance level which may not be broken on the first attempt.
AMERISAFE holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at $62.25 and $57.74. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday January 14, 2019, which indicates further gains until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.
* Golden Star Signal* is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI14 is 88 and the stock is extremely overbought on RSI14, but may also ontinue to gain. Some stocks see their best performance while being overbought, but very seldom does RSI remain so high for a long time without short corrections. Risk has therefore increased and larger daily movements can be expected for the next couple of days.
Support & Resistance
AMERISAFE finds support from accumulated volume at $63.90.
This stock may move much during a day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $1.17 between high and low, or 1.83%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 1.84%.
The stock is extremely overbought on RSI14 (88). Normally this will pose a good selling opportunity, but since the stock has broken the trend up the chance for a major correction due to high RSI is very small as the stock will find support at the trend broken. Since the AMERISAFE has been rising for 8 days in a row, the risk for the next couple of days has increased. As we cannot be certain with regards to the size of the reaction, we urge caution.
Our recommended stoploss: $61.21 (-4.60%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 88 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from pivot bottom found 23 days ago.)
Very Low Low Medium High Very High
AMERISAFE holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy-recommendation. At the current level we recommend to hold or accumulate in this position whilst awaiting for further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our recommendation for this stock since last evaluation from a Buy Candidate to a Hold/Accumulate.