Fri 23'rd Jun 2017
AMERISAFE Stock Analysis
Technical stock analysis for Fri 23'rd Jun 2017
Buy candidate since 2017-06-23
AMERISAFE lies the upper part of a wide and strong falling trend in the short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at USD 57.91 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -18.1% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between USD 37.68 and USD 47.42 at the end of this period.
Only positive signals in the chart today. AMERISAFE holds a sales signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term moving average at approximately USD 56.44. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately USD 53.79. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sales signal. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday June 21, 2017, which indicates further gains until a new top pivot has been found. The volume rose on the last day while price remained unchanged. This may be an early warning and the stock should be watched closely.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI14 is 66 and the stock is currently not being overbought or oversold
Support & Resistance
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at USD 52.05 and USD 51.95. On the upside the stock meets some resistance just above today's level from accumulated volume at USD 58.30, USD 57.55 and USD 57.75.
There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, AMERISAFE finds support just below today's level at 52.05. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at 51.95 and 51.70. The stock is about to test the resistance from accumulated volume at USD 58.30 and this may cause the stock to take a minor break or get into a more sideways move for a few days.
This stock is usually traded at good volume, and with minor daily changes the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved USD 0.80 (1.45%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 2.78%.
Our recommended stoploss: USD 52.64 (-5.84%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from pivot bottom found 2 days ago.)
Several short-term signals are positive, despite the stock being in a strong falling trend, we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for this stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our recommendation for this stock since last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy Candidate.
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