Thu 19'th Oct 2017

PERIOD 2017-07-20 - 2017-10-19
CHANGE 0.17%
PRICE $59.65
VOLUME
Sell
TREND
Buy

MV LONG
Buy

MV SHORT
Buy

PIVOT
Sell

MACD
Sell

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AMERISAFE Stock Analysis

Technical stock analysis for Thu 19'th Oct 2017

Hold candidate since 2017-10-18 Gain 0.17%

AMERISAFE gained 0.17% in the last trading day, rising from $59.55 to $59.65 , and has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. The price has risen in 5 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.76% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell in the last day by -24 006 shares, and in total, 36 733 shares bought and sold for approximately $2.19 million. You should take into consideration that a falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes for the next couple of days.

Trend

AMERISAFE lies in the middle of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 4.16% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $55.90 and $63.77 at the end of this period.

Signals

AMERISAFE holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at $59.51 and $57.29. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sales signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday October 11, 2017, which indicates further falls until a new bottom pivot has been found.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI14 is 68 and the stock is currently not being overbought or oversold

Support & Resistance

AMERISAFE finds support from accumulated volume at $58.80. On the upside the stock meets some resistance just above today's level from accumulated volume at $59.80 and $59.95.

The stock is about to test the resistance from accumulated volume at $59.80 and this may cause the stock to take a minor break or get into a more sideways move for a few days.

Support: $58.80 Price: $59.65 Resistance: $59.80

Risk

This stock is usually traded at good volume, and with minor daily changes the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $0.45 (0.76%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 1.17%.

Our recommended stoploss: $57.55 (-3.52%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from pivot top found 6 days ago.)

Overall risk:

Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Evaluation

AMERISAFE holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy-recommendation. At the current level we recommend to hold or accumulate in this position whilst awaiting for further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our recommendation for this stock since last evaluation from a Buy Candidate to a Hold/Accumulate.

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