Advance Auto Parts Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since May 27, 2025 Gain 25.81%

The Advance Auto Parts Inc stock price gained 0.629% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 15th Jul 2025), rising from $62.01 to $62.40. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.51% from a day low at $61.41 to a day high of $62.95. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 34.22% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -345 thousand shares and in total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $120.78 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The stock lies in the upper part of a very wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $63.55 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 88.45% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $92.73 and $119.77 at the end of this 3-month period.

AAP Signals & Forecast

The Advance Auto Parts Inc stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $59.27 and $51.64. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, July 11, 2025, and so far it has fallen -0.256%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. The stock had a Golden Star Signal on Monday, December 23, 2024 in the long-term chart.

Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Advance Auto Parts Inc stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $52.71 and $49.17. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Advance Auto Parts Inc finds support just below today's level at $52.71. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $49.17 and $48.67.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $1.54 between high and low, or 2.51%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 5.31%.

The Advance Auto Parts Inc stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stock may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: $60.60 (-2.89%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. The RSI14 is 85 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 2 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (AAP) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 16th

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 16th we expect Advance Auto Parts Inc to open at $62.25, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $61.06 and $63.74, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$2.68 (+/-4.39%) up or down from last closing price. If Advance Auto Parts Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.39% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $62.56 (0.26%) than the support at $52.71 (15.53%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Advance Auto Parts Inc stock A Buy?

Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Advance Auto Parts Inc stock to perform well in the short-term.

Current score: 2.679 Buy Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 16, 2025 - $62.25 ( 0.235%).

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