Advance Auto Parts Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since May 27, 2025 Gain 12.32%

The Advance Auto Parts Inc stock price gained 2.75% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 8th Jul 2025), rising from $54.22 to $55.71. It has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.86% from a day low at $53.26 to a day high of $55.85. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 7.28% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 870 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 3 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $172.20 million.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 73.27% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $85.40 and $105.67 at the end of this 3-month period.

AAP Signals & Forecast

The Advance Auto Parts Inc stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $50.43 and $48.19. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, June 26, 2025, and so far it has risen 20.38%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. The stock had a Golden Star Signal on Monday, December 23, 2024 in the long-term chart.

Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Advance Auto Parts Inc stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $52.71 and $49.17. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Advance Auto Parts Inc finds support just below today's level at $52.71. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $49.17 and $48.67.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $2.59 between high and low, or 4.86%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 6.01%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $53.68 (-3.64%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 7 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (AAP) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 9th

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 9th we expect Advance Auto Parts Inc to open at $54.94, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $53.23 and $58.19, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$2.48 (+/-4.45%) up or down from last closing price. If Advance Auto Parts Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 8.91% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ $52.71, some $3.00 (5.39%) from the current price of $55.71, our system finds the risk reward attractive.

Dividend Warning For AAP

Dividend warning for AAP: Ex-dividend date is approaching in 1 day on Friday 11th July, 2025. The dividend to be paid is $0.250, which is a small dividend (0.449%). The stock is expected to open approximately 0.449% lower on the ex-dividend date.

Is Advance Auto Parts Inc stock A Buy?

Advance Auto Parts Inc holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Current score: 0.000 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Zero in score indicates that our system is expecting high volatility and risk for the following trading day. Given the latest developments, we cannot determine the next direction as it may go both ways.

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 9, 2025 - $54.94 ( 1.38%).

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