Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation Stock Forecast
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation stock upgraded to Sell Candidate.
(Updated on Apr 19, 2024)
The Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation stock price gained 2.34% on the last trading day (Friday, 19th Apr 2024), rising from $6.41 to $6.56. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.13% from a day low at $6.38 to a day high of $6.58. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -8.38% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -457 thousand shares and in total, 396 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $2.60 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies in the lower of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $6.36 is broken, it will firstly indicate a stronger fall rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -30.32% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $4.43 and $5.22 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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ACRE Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, April 18, 2024, and so far it has risen 2.34%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $6.68 and $7.31. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation stock
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation finds support from accumulated volume at $6.52 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.200 between high and low, or 3.13%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.63%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (ACRE) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 22nd
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 22nd we expect Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation to open at $6.51, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $6.35 and $6.77, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.215 (+/-3.27%) up or down from last closing price. If Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.54% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $6.52 (0.61%) than the resistance at $7.24 (10.37%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation stock A Buy?
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Sell to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -3.662 Sell Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation of Monday, April 22, 2024
| Fair opening price April 22, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $6.51 ( 0.81%) | $6.56 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ACRE
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 6.71 | 2.24 % | |
| R2 | 6.63 | 1.07 % | ||
| R1 | 6.58 | 0.352 % | ||
| Current price: | 6.56 | |||
| Support | S1 | 6.43 | -1.98 % | |
| S2 | 6.38 | -2.70 % | ||
| S3 | 6.31 | -3.86 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 8.07 | 23.02 % | |
| R2 | 7.65 | 16.62 % | ||
| R1 | 7.24 | 10.37 % | ||
| Current price | 6.56 | |||
| Support | S1 | 6.52 | -0.610% | |
| S2 | 6.43 | -1.98% | ||
| S3 | 6.41 | -2.29% |
ACRE Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 22, 2024 | Mar 27, 2024 | Apr 16, 2024 | $0.250 | 3.83% |
| 2 | Dec 28, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | Jan 17, 2024 | $0.330 | 3.34% |
| 3 | Aug 02, 2023 | Sep 28, 2023 | Oct 17, 2023 | $0.330 | 3.41% |
| 4 | May 02, 2023 | Jun 29, 2023 | Jul 18, 2023 | $0.350 | 3.19% |
| 5 | Feb 15, 2023 | Mar 30, 2023 | Apr 18, 2023 | $0.350 | 3.99% |
FAQ
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